A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. Clearly, we haven’t reached a point where one week can no longer sway bettors one way or another. Here are Week 7’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
New York Giants (+6) at Atlanta Falcons
Opening: New York Giants (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
This is the first of three line movements this week that mostly stem from primetime game reactions. The Giants looked helpless on Thursday night against Philadelphia, with Saquon Barkley appearing to be the only one who came to play. The Falcons, fresh off a win over Tampa, seem to be a much more talented team. The problem is they’ll definitely be without Devonta Freeman, and possibly without Calvin Ridley. Without those weapons, this could be the first time a Falcons game has gone under since Week 1. The total has gone over just once in the last 11 matchups between Atlanta and New York.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 7 Opening Odds
Carolina Panthers (+5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening: Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Our next primetime game reaction goes to the Eagles, who administered the aforementioned beating to the Giants. Meanwhile, the Panthers are two weeks removed from nearly losing to the Giants and lost as one-point favorites to Washington in Week 6. The Panthers were favored in five of their last six matchups with Philadelphia and were 3-2 against the spread — but the Eagles covered the lone time they were favored. Further, the Panthers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games while the Eagles have covered eight of their last 12 home games.
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Opening: Los Angeles Rams (-11) at San Francisco 49ers
Our final primetime reaction comes courtesy of the 49ers, who nearly beat the Packers in Green Bay on Monday night. Though they were major underdogs, the 49ers had the lead until 1:55 remained in the fourth quarter. Now they’ll face an even tougher opponent in the Rams, but this time they’ll be at home. They’ve also covered in each of their last five meetings with the Rams. The Rams haven’t beaten San Francisco by more than 10 since Week 8 of the 2015 season. That was also the only time they’ve managed to do so since 2004 when they twice beat the 2-14 49ers by 10 points. You’d have to go back to the Greatest Show on Turf to see the Rams consistently beating the 49ers by more than 11.
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Washington Redskins
Opening: Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Washington Redskins
Last week, a certain writer wondered how many points we could realistically expect the Cowboys to score against Jacksonville. The answer turned out to be 40 as the Cowboys gave the Jaguars perhaps the most embarrassing loss of the season so far. That had something to do with the Cowboys closing the gap with the favored Redskins, as well as their recent play against Washington. Dallas has won eight of their last 10 meetings and has covered five of the last seven. That includes two wins last year with a 19-point average margin of victory. Considering Dallas is such a public team, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were favored at some point this week.
