A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. Here are Week 9’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Opening: Tennessee Titans (+4) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 3-0 at home and are coming off a bye. They’ve also added Amari Cooper, who immediately becomes their best receiver. And as the most popular team in the NFL, there’s never a shortage of people willing to bet on them. As for the Titans, they’re also coming off a bye but have lost three in a row. That includes a loss to the Bills as six-point favorites. As bad as their offense has looked in October, they’re not a popular team at the moment. Working in their favor is their 4-1 record against the spread as underdogs this season. They’re 2-0 against the spread as underdogs of six points or more.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 9 Odds
Los Angeles Rams (+2) at New Orleans Saints
Opening: Los Angeles Rams (EVEN) at New Orleans Saints
Odd as it is for the undefeated Rams to be underdogs, it makes sense. The Saints have won 10 of their last 11 at home and are close to being undefeated themselves. They’ve also covered in each of their last five games. The Rams, on the other hand, have only covered once in their last five games. They’ll also likely have to rely more on Jared Goff and the passing game than Todd Gurley and the running game. The Saints’ defense is ranked first in both rushing yards per game (74.1) and yards per attempt (3.2). It’s an obstacle the Rams could still overcome, but things will be much harder for them if Gurley doesn’t make an impact. The Rams were 0-2 last year when Gurley failed to eclipse 60 yards from scrimmage.
Chicago Bears (-10) at Buffalo Bills
Opening: Chicago Bears (-8) at Buffalo Bills
Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bills this week. We could probably stop there but, just for fun, let’s crunch the numbers. Peterman’s career stats include 4.44 yards per attempt, a 45.7 completion percentage, a 1:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 31.4 quarterback rating. The Bills are 1-7 (including playoffs) in games in which Peterman threw a pass. The only win was a 13-7 overtime victory over the 3-9 Colts last December.
So the Bills just lean on the running game, right? They’re probably more likely to win if they do, but the Bears are third in rushing yards allowed per game (83.1) and they’re the only team in the league that still hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown. Considering they’re playing a team that hasn’t scored more than 13 points in their last five games, the Bears could be bigger favorites before Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at Carolina Panthers
Opening: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Buccaneers are difficult to read. It’s unclear if they’re better with Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was heroic in relief of Winston last week, but we can’t soon forget the Chicago performance that got him benched in the first place. This line movement may have more to do with Carolina. The Panthers have covered in two straight and are 3-1 against the spread at home. They also just dropped 36 on the top scoring defense in the league. Perhaps more importantly, they’ve had recent success against the Bucs. They’ve covered in seven of their last 10 Tampa matchups.
