Perhaps as a sports bettor, you’re not quite sure which team will win Super Bowl 53, and you might not know exactly whether the Minnesota Vikings will cover the 4.5-point spread against the San Francisco 49ers on opening weekend of the NFL season. But you might have a good feel for how good a specific team will be.
If so, season win totals might be the betting arena for you.
Convinced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ woeful performance last year was an anomaly? Perhaps betting over 6.5 wins for the Bucs this season is the right move. Or maybe, given this year’s first-place schedule, the out-of-nowhere Jacksonville Jaguars can’t get to the total of 9. Either way, season win totals are a popular way for bettors to predict what will happen throughout the season with a larger margin for error than individual game lines.
This page includes an in-depth look at what season totals are, what you should consider before betting them and finally, a list of this year’s NFL season win totals and our pick for all 32 teams.
What season win totals are
In most futures wagers, bettors are trying to predict the winner of a division title or league championship. But another popular type of futures bets is the win total, in which bettors take a number provided by the house and predict whether the given team will win more or less than (over or under) that number.
The bet is decided in similar fashion to an individual game total. If the total includes a half-number, such as 7.5 or 9.5, then there is a clear winner. So if a team with a total of 7.5 wins 8 games, the over wins. If a team with a total of 9.5 wins 9 games, the under wins.
When the line is a whole number, the possibility of a push exists. For instance, if a team’s season win total is 10 and it goes exactly 10-6, then the bet is a push. That means the original bet is returned but with no additional winnings.
Usually, the house takes a slightly higher rake in win total bets. Instead of a 10 percent rake (each side is -110) on a single-game bet, the line might be -115 or -120 to each side. This is because bettors generally have a higher margin for error with a full-season bet than with a single-game or futures bet.
Strategies for betting season win totals
There are many factors to consider when betting NFL season win totals. Start with how many games a team won the previous year. Then decide how it might change. Bettors should be sure to dissect how much talent a team loses, returns and adds from the previous season. They should also be aware of any coaching changes or other factors, such as an offseason injury or contract dispute with a key player, that could change the way a team plays.
One often-overlooked factor is a team’s strength of schedule. In the NFL especially, the schedule can make or break a team’s season — and the over or under on its win total. Each team in a given division plays the same schedule, except for two games. In those two games, the defending division champions plays first-place teams from two other divisions. Last year’s second-place teams play second-place teams, third-place teams play third-place teams, etc. That means that a defending division champion might have a tougher time matching or surpassing last year’s win total than a last-place team, which should have an easier slate.
And then, as in any sports betting venture, a certain amount luck is involved. Injuries during the season, especially to a key player such as a quarterback, can waylay any team’s season. Of course, if you bet the under, that might be a good thing.
However, there is a larger margin for error with season win totals, because good and bad luck tends to even out more over the course of a season than in a single game. That makes season win totals a good place to look for value — if you’re willing to let a sportsbook hold your money for the course of an entire season.
NFL Season Win Totals – 2018
Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Wins
Over 9 Wins -125
Under 9 Wins -105
Philadelphia Eagles Regular Season Wins
Over 10 Wins -132
Under 10 Wins +102
Tennessee Titans Regular Season Wins
Over 8 Wins -120
Under 8 Wins -110
Arizona Cardinals Regular Season Wins
Over 5½ Wins -150
Under 5½ Wins +115
Baltimore Ravens Regular Season Wins
Over 8 Wins -125
Under 8 Wins -105
Buffalo Bills Regular Season Wins
Over 6 Wins +112
Under 6 Wins -143
Carolina Panthers Regular Season Wins
Over 9 Wins +110
Under 9 Wins -145
Chicago Bears Regular Season Wins
Over 6½ Wins -150
Under 6½ Wins +115
Cincinnati Bengals Regular Season Wins
Over 6½ Wins -145
Under 6½ Wins +110
Cleveland Browns Regular Season Wins
Over 5½ Wins -160
Under 5½ Wins +125
Dallas Cowboys Regular Season Wins
Over 8½ Wins +105
Under 8½ Wins -135
Denver Broncos Regular Season Wins
Over 7 Wins -150
Under 7 Wins +115
Green Bay Packers Regular Season Wins
Over 10 Wins +125
Under 10 Wins -160
Houston Texans Regular Season Wins
Over 8½ Wins -160
Under 8½ Wins +125
Indianapolis Colts Regular Season Wins
Over 6½ Wins -130
Under 6½ Wins +100
Jacksonville Jaguars Regular Season Wins
Over 9 Wins -145
Under 9 Wins +110
Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Wins
Over 8 Wins -150
Under 8 Wins +115
Los Angeles Chargers Regular Season Wins
Over 9 Wins -160
Under 9 Wins +125
Miami Dolphins Regular Season Wins
Over 6½ Wins -120
Under 6½ Wins -110
Minnesota Vikings Regular Season Wins
Over 10 Wins -120
Under 10 Wins -110
New England Patriots Regular Season Wins
Over 11 Wins -135
Under 11 Wins +105
New Orleans Saints Regular Season Wins
Over 9 Wins -180
Under 9 Wins +135
New York Giants Regular Season Wins
Over 7 Wins -115
Under 7 Wins -115
Pittsburgh Steelers Regular Season Wins
Over 10 Wins -150
Under 10 Wins +115
San Francisco 49ers Regular Season Wins
Over 8½ Wins -120
Under 8½ Wins -110
Seattle Seahawks Regular Season Wins
Over 8 Wins +115
Under 8 Wins -150
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Regular Season Wins
Over 6½ Wins +115
Under 6½ Wins -150
Washington Redskins Regular Season Wins
Over 7 Wins +110
Under 7 Wins -145
Detroit Lions Regular Season Wins
Over 8 Wins +125
Under 8 Wins -160
Los Angeles Rams Regular Season Wins
Over 9½ Wins -160
Under 9½ Wins +125
New York Jets Regular Season Wins
Over 6 Wins +105
Under 6 Wins -135
Oakland Raiders Regular Season Wins
Over 8 Wins -135
Under 8 Wins +105