The new NFL season begins on Thursday with the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks meeting in Seattle. What are the Super Bowl championship odds for each team? Here’s the first look.
1. Seattle Seahawks
This week: +475
The Seahawks are still an excellent defensive team. They should dominate home games from that side of the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks are so hard to beat at home, when they play with such passion and confidence. Seattle’s offense remains a concern, though. Marshawn Lynch absorbed a lot of hits last season, and he had an abrasive offseason with the team during contract negotiations. Quarterback Russell Wilson needs to improve as a passer, but Percy Harvin, his expected top target, has been a very injury-prone receiver over the years. Harvin has to stay healthy, but if he can’t, Seattle’s passing game would take a very huge hit. It seems that a lot of things have to go just right for the Seahawks to get back to the Super Bowl.
2. Denver Broncos
This week: +480
The Broncos have some significant concerns as they start the season. Kicker Matt Prater has been suspended for the first few games of the season, perhaps enough to cost the team sometime in September. Wes Welker has been suspended for four games for using amphetamines, but his health beyond drug use is at issue. His suffering of yet another concussion this past preseason has put his career in legitimate jeopardy. Can the Broncos really survive without Welker? They really came to depend on him last season and lost some effectiveness on offense when he was out of the lineup. Denver did improve its defense with DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib, but the offense is still the foremost strength of the team, and without Welker, it won’t be as good.
3. New England Patriots
This week: +732
The Patriots should like their chances on a number of levels. First, Rob Gronkowski, who missed much of last season with an injury, expects to play in week one. If he’s back in the lineup on a regular basis, the Patriots’ passing game, which was missing Gronkowski’s ability to stretch the field last season, would instantly receive the boost it has been needing. The Patriots could use Tom Brady’s brilliance to spread the ball to various receivers and get a lot of people involved the way head coach Bill Belichick wants to. The Patriots also know how to contain the Denver Broncos’ offense. They know Peyton Manning’s habits and held Denver under 30 points in the AFC Championship Game, staying fairly close even though their offense didn’t do much during the game. New England has a great chance of overcoming Denver for the AFC title. The Patriots haven’t won a Super Bowl in nine years. The odds suggest that the Patriots are due.
4. San Francisco 49ers
This week: +825
The 49ers are going to be questioned in one big way: They’ve reached the NFC Championship Game each of the past three seasons, playing a lot of football and absorbing a lot of bumps and bruises. A lot of people are going to think that San Francisco is going to run out of gas and experience too many injuries. There are also worries that head coach Jim Harbaugh is not on good terms with management and is wanting to get out of the NFL if this season doesn’t deliver another Super Bowl appearance. Harbaugh is an excellent coach, though, and the Niners have a way of playing their best football in the playoffs. They’re probably going to be right there at the end.
5. Green Bay Packers
This week: +994
The Packers didn’t have Aaron Rodgers available for much of last season. They won their division, but they won only eight games. With Rodgers around, all things are possible for the Packers, but losing defensive lineman B.J. Raji for the season due to injury is really going to limit their defense overall. Green Bay’s offense is going to be great, but the defense has always been a concern over the past few seasons. The defense is why the 15-1 team in the 2011 season was upset by the New York Giants in the divisional playoff round. Green Bay should win more games and be more of a contender, but can it take the final few steps back to the Super Bowl?
6. New Orleans Saints
This week: +1000
The Saints will be in the mix. They played Seattle tough in the divisional playoffs last season. They showed they could run the ball, they showed they could rush the passer, and they proved that they could win a road playoff game, something the franchise had never done before. New Orleans has some toughness to go along with Drew Brees’ passing game. If this team can find a few extra players to step up in what became a very thin secondary last season, this team might have all the ingredients of an NFC champion.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
This week: +2300
The Eagles’ offense should be very good once again. The NFL is trying to adjust to head coach Chip Kelly’s concepts, but Kelly knows how to out-think a defense. The Eagles’ commitment to tempo, and their mix of quality receivers (DeSean Jackson) and running backs (LeSean McCoy), gives them so many different ways of moving the ball. Quarterback Nick Foles has so many options to choose from, and that should make the Eagles hard to stop on the road to the NFC East title. Anything beyond the division, though, still seems like a tough ask, given the depth in the NFC.
8. Indianapolis Colts
This week: +2599
The Colts are a very interesting team. Andrew Luck is back for another season, but it was clear in the AFC wild card game against the Kansas City Chiefs that he had a lot to learn. People will remember the Colts’ great comeback, but Indianapolis was lucky to benefit from a lot of Kansas City injuries during that game, especially in the second half. Luck had a bad first half, and he still struggles with some of the decisions he makes during games. Luck has a lot of room in which to grow, and his team might not get tested much in the AFC South, which could be an issue when the playoffs come. Indianapolis can get to the playoffs without much of a problem, but can it fight past New England and Denver?
9. Cincinnati Bengals +2800
10. Chicago Bears: +3086
11. San Diego Chargers +3350
12. Baltimore Ravens +3550
13. Pittsburgh Steelers +3906
14. Detroit Lions +4091
15. Atlanta Falcons +4283
16. Arizona Cardinals +4693
