Last week in this spot I spit so much truth, using math, data and common sense I should probably just retire right now. I was one Joe Flacco first down away from going 4-0 straight up and against the spread. That’s some fine playoff pickery right there. But this is the big week. It’s where the rubber meats the road. Let’s crack this thing open.
I don’t have a manifesto, per se, but in the playoffs, we can count on a few things being true.
–The Super Bowl is rarely ever a match up between the two best regular season teams. Especially in the modern salary cap/free agency era–
Since 1994, the top seeds in the AFC and NFC have met in the Super Bowl exactly two times: in 2010 with Colts vs Saints and last year with Broncos vs Seahawks. A Seahawks – Patriots Super Bowl would be so rare as to be almost statistically impossible. It has a 13 percent chance of happening straight up and that’s not even factoring in the odds of it happening in back-to-back seasons. And I know I did a little math there, but let’s all try to forget it and move on.
–Two teams that played home games, regardless of seeds, on Championship Weekend meeting up in the Super Bowl has happened five times in the last 11 years–
We’re not even batting .500 here on home teams, regardless of seeds, further making the possibility of a Patriots – Seahawks Super Bowl unlikely, taking math to figure out that I am in no way going to attempt.
–Two teams that played road games, regardless of seeds, on Championship Weekend meeting in the Super Bowl has happened only once in the last 11 years–
So the odds of a Colts – Packers Super Bowl are astronomically high.
–The team with the better quarterback almost always wins–
For the first time in a long time, this probably won’t really come into play. We have four outstanding quarterbacks left in both brackets. Four of probably the six best playing right now, and you could maybe say one guy is technically better than the other (Aaron Rodgers over Russell Wilson for instance), the opposing team is hardly showing up with a Ryan Lindley here. These guys are all elite quarterbacks. So this rule, my last one, can be of no help to us.
Packers at Seahawks [-7.5]
Back before the modern era of free agency and the salary cap, teams used to go to back-to-back Super Bowls all the time. You could keep a team together, load your roster and outside of dealing with the occasional star player hold out, you could win rings in multiple years. Not anymore.
The last time a team went to back-to-back Super Bowls was in 2004-05 with the New England Patriots deep in their SpyGate cheating span. Before that it was the 1998-99 Denver Broncos. Considering that you have to go back 16 seasons to find a team that’s trying to pull off what Seattle is doing without cheating, shows the daunting task they have ahead of them.
Factor all that in and it’s probably obvious who I’m going to pick in this game. You’re wrong. I’m picking the Seahawks.
If any team can take advantage of this window before its team is decimated by free agency and positive drug tests, it’s Seattle. They’re just as loaded as they were last season, except better, playing their best football of the season at the end of the year. Just a few weeks ago the Packers played an elite defense in Buffalo and got beat, making sure they’d play this game at CenturyLink Field and all but guaranteeing a loss. I think they’ll put up a fight as long as the Packers offensive line can keep Cliff Avril from sweeping Rodgers’ leg, but there will be no surprises here. Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 23
Colts at Patriots [-6.5]
The fact that this game will be played late might just ruin my entire weekend. The stress the Patriots cause me, by their very existence, is unmatched and unwarranted. I can not truly rest until they’re out of the picture.
Tom Brady is coming off his best playoff performance since Bill Belichick was busted doing his NFL Bob Crane impersonation. The Patriots came back from two 14-point deficits to beat the Joe Flacco-led Ravens and deserved to win. That just made it worse.
Because of SpyGate, and the lack of championship performances since, Tom Brady is playing for his legacy in every playoff run. Meanwhile on the other side is Andrew Luck, the guy building a legacy, on a team fired up, excited with a coach that wants a ring as much as his players.
There was a similar situation to this one back in 1992. You had a quarterback, Steve Young, with a complicated legacy and team that was favored to go to the Super Bowl all through the playoffs. Then there was this upstart crew, the Dallas Cowboys, with their young quarterback and stars on both sides of the ball, coming into Candlestick to be sacrificed to the 49ers machine. We all know how that turned out.
I’m backing the new guys. I believe in hope and destiny. I’m rooting for the future. I want to see Tom Brady weep openly into his Ugg Boots. I want to see which Patriots wide receiver Gisele blames for this loss. I want to punch Bill Belichick so hard in the face that the impact creates a spacial singularity, birthing a new universe where the Patriots don’t exist. Pick: Colts 31, Patriots 17
