Sometimes it’s no fun being right. I nailed both NFC and AFC championship picks, straight up and against the spread, and I feel terrible. This NFL season was great in that we had so many new teams fight to get a seat at the big boys’ table. But, in the end, the same old schoolyard bully showed up to screw everything up.
First off, you have to hand it to the Jacksonville Jaguars (no pun intended). They made it to the AFC title game and obviously deserved to be there. They gave the New England Patriots all they wanted and, ultimately, it was the offensive clutch deficiencies of Blake Bortles that lost the game.
Since 2003, only FOUR different quarterbacks have won the AFC Championship.
Tom Brady has won SEVEN of those AFC titles! #GoPats #NotDone pic.twitter.com/Aq8MRgH9T6
— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2018
After taking a 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter, the Jags defense forced a turnover. Specifically, it was linebacker Myles Jack making just one more phenomenal play out of what should be a star-making playoff performance. Jack was a beast in every Jacksonville postseason game and it’s no secret he was off the field when the Patriots took the lead late in the final quarter.
Jack’s fumble recovery, with clutch QB play, should have ended the game. Up by 10, all the Jaguars had to do was run minutes off the clock and drive down into a field goal range. Sure, Tom Brady and the Patriots could have still overcome a 13-point deficit, but the Jaguars got the ball with 13:37 on their own 33. Now, I’m no math wiz, but around 40 yards of offense there sets up another field goal and, if you stay in bounds and let the clock run, maybe you run it below 10 minutes. A 23-10 lead with, say, 9:30 to go would be tough to overcome.
But, Bortles couldn’t deliver and the Jaguars went 3-and-out. Worse than that, they barely ran a little more than a minute off the clock. Needless to say, New England drove right back down the field and scored. It was 20-17.
I thought the Jags brought the best out of Brady. Age 40. Amazing.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 21, 2018
Still, the sky hadn’t fallen. Jacksonville had another chance with the ball and, again, they had to do something with it. If, for no other reason, to move that clock. This time they got five plays off before punting, but there was still 6:21 left in the game.
Then, a miracle happened. The Jags defense bowed its back, grabbed some grass and forced a Patriots’ 3-and-out with 5:53 to go. All they had to do now is pick up first downs. There didn’t have to be a concern in scoring. Move the chains, run the clock, go to the Super Bowl. The Jags lost a yard on three downs and punted again. You know what happened next.
You just can’t give the Patriots and Brady that many chances. You can’t expect your defense, even an elite defense, to play perfect on every drive. Jacksonville’s defense forced a turnover and a 3-and-out in the fourth quarter with the lead against the best quarterback of all time, cut hand or not. Bortles just couldn’t deliver when the game rested on his shoulders.
Blake Bortles shedding tears after losing heartbreaker to the Patriots pic.twitter.com/ev4R261L7P
— Gifdsports (@gifdsports) January 21, 2018
Now, just as I predicted, the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl. I nearly pegged the score. I said it would be 27-20 and it was 24-20. Not too bad for my prognostication, but it’s bad for all of us. Even if you don’t hate New England (and, let’s face it, if you live anywhere outside of Boston you probably do), you’re sick of seeing them in the Super Bowl. There’s no question a Jagaurs vs Vikings Super Bowl 52 match up would have been the most fun. A team that had never won the Vince Lombardi Trophy in its history would hoist it.
Minnesota, the first four-time Super Bowl losers, would get a chance to redeem their franchise. The Jaguars would have the greatest single-season turnaround for a franchise since the 1999-2000 St. Louis Rams.
The Vikings and Eagles match up had far less drama outside of an opening touchdown drive from Minnesota. It was a complete domination as all the silly shit Case Keenum had gotten away with in the previous game came back to bite him in the ass against a well-coached defense. Nick Foles has been spectacular in his two playoff games this year. How spectacular? How about there are are only two quarterbacks in NFL history to complete more than 70 percent of their passes in back-to-back playoff games. One of the is Joe Montana. The other is Nick Foles.
Since 2000, four quarterbacks have had 300+ passing yards, 3+ passing TD and 0 INT in a conference championship game:
• Tom Brady
• Peyton Manning
• Matt Ryan
• Nick Foles— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 22, 2018
Foles’ final line, 26-of-33 for 352 yards and three touchdowns. No picks.
Make no mistake, this Eagles team, if Foles plays like this in the Super Bowl, can dominate the Patriots. Will he? That’s the question you have to ask yourself.
Here’s how I did.
Last week
Straight up: 2-0
Against the spread: 2-0
Playoffs
Straight up: 5-5
Against the spread: 5-5
Season
Straight up: 162-104
Against the spread: 125-135
By virtue of picking both games correctly, I tied atop the national picks standings for the week. Jeff Ratcliffe of Pro Football Focus has secured the season title with a two-game lead on K.C. Joyner from ESPN. Ratcliffe is 185-81 and has mathematically eliminated us all. Good job, Jeff.
My last two regular season weeks continue to haunt me, but I did pull ahead of all the NFL Network talent so at least there’s that.
Against the spread, Joe Machota of the Dallas Morning News continues to put on a clinic. He’s 9-1 in the playoffs and can only be caught by Tim Rohan of MMQB, who is 8-2. I still have two games overall on Machota, so I feel pretty good about that. He’s 123-126 and, again, did not pick every game. Which is bullshit.
For the season, I’m right at No. 26 even after my final two-week nosedive. With only one game to go (and all of us making the same pick, I’d imagine) I’m probably stuck there.
EARLY SUPER BOWL 52 LINE
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-6). O/U: 48.0
That’s a very interesting, and conservative starting line. If Brady’s hand wasn’t hurt, it would at least be -7. I’ve now seen photos of his stitches and scar and the whole thing seems overblown. Yeah, I’m sure it hurts, but it’s more of a boo boo than a Game of Thrones battle wound. New England has been favored in all but two of its Super Bowls in the Brady-Belichick era, but never by -6. They’ve had -12 (against the Giants in Super Bowl 42) and -7 twice (against the Panthers and Eagles in 38 and 39).
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