For the last decade and a half, the easiest bet to win in sports has been that the New England Patriots will win the AFC East. Only twice since 2001 did the Patriots not clinch the East. The lone outlier years were 2002 (the New York Jets won it) and 2008 (the Miami Dolphins won it. This was also the year that Tom Brady tore his ACL and the Pats still won 11 games).
Needless to say, the odds are not in any team’s favor to unseat the Patriots. Even with Brady’s impending QB cliff. Here’s this year’s set from BetDSI Sportsbook.
AFC East 2018 Odds
New England Patriots -800
Buffalo Bills +1000
Miami Dolphins +1000
New York Jets +1100
Anybody really looking to make some money will either steer clear of the AFC East when it’s time to lay down a bet or feel really good about the Buffalo Bills with A.J. McCarron at QB or the Miami Dolphins. You could make a killing here if either of those teams were to accidentally fall into an AFC East championship in 2018.
Let’s look at the Patriots
Is there any reason to think there might be a chink in their armor? Unless I change my mind over the next few months, I’m not picking them to return to the Super Bowl, but it would take nothing less than Brady finally careening over that quarterback chasm he’s avoided for the last couple of seasons to open this division up. That, or another injury.
New England’s back up situation is a disaster waiting to happen. Pats fans got a little preview as Brady skipped OTAs to fling footballs off yachts and Brian Hoyer ran the show. If Hoyer has to step in as a starter any time before December, this division suddenly becomes a free for all.
Miami’s up next
The Dolphins, for whatever reason, consistently find a way to beat the Patriots when they play in Miami. Last year, they knocked off the Pats 27-20 on Dec. 11. If there is a team that could dethrone the Mad Kings, it’s the Dolphins. What are their chances?
Not horrible. Adam Gase is in his third year at the helm and he’ll have a healthy Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. The problem, of course, is Gase traded away two of his best offensive weapons over the last calendar year in Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry. Is free agent acquisition Danny Amendola going to produce like Landry? It’s a stupid question to even ask. Of course not. At running back Miami has the desiccated remains of Frank Gore supposedly carrying the load. It’ll take a mammoth effort to not take a step backward on offense this year.
How about the Bills?
Buffalo made the playoffs last season in spite of their offensive problems. Frankly, it was the worst thing that could happen for them. They really needed the draft capital missing the postseason would have given them. The rest of the AFC is garbage so they (and the Tennessee Titans) both backed in.
Are they going to be better in 2018? Nope. A.J. McCarron is a better Xs and Os quarterback than Tyrod Taylor, but Taylor’s physical skills actually won the Bills some games. This is a team than wants to put rookie Josh Allen in sooner rather than later and I doubt McCarron will present much of an obstacle.
What about the Jets?
Once rookie Sam Darnold takes over, I expect this team will be fun to watch. I still don’t expect a lot of wins. Nothing short of an AFC bird flu pandemic will open up their chance at a title this year.
