There was a changing of the guard in the AFC South last season as the Jacksonville Jaguars claimed the title in a year no one expected them to compete for much more than the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Considering the Jags did nothing but improve this offseason, it’s surprising to see that they’re not the favorites to win it in 2018 according to the oddsmakers at BetDSI Sportsbook. See for yourself.
AFC South 2018 Odds
Houston Texans +155
Jacksonville Jaguars +170
Tennessee Titans +300
Indianapolis Colts +600
So let’s talk about the Texans
There’s plenty to like about a Houston team with a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback and J.J. Watt at defensive end. The Texans were decimated by injuries last season, with Watson tearing his ACL after blasting out the gate as a starter. Watt never was healthy and was shut down after five games. Houston lost the criminally underrated Whitney Mercilus at the same time.
There’s a big problem with the Texans and it’s one that could haunt them all year; Bill O’Brien is a terrible head coach. O’Brien has survived in Houston thanks to Andrew Luck’s recent injury history and the fact that Gus Bradley, Chuck Pagano and Mike Mularkey were his AFC South peers. A fire hydrant looks like a competent head coaching material next to that shitshow.
This should be an explosive offense and a better defense with Romeo Crennel back in command after the Titans stupidly hired away Mike Vrabel, who coordinated one of the league’s best defenses from 2016 right into the ground in 2017.
What’s with the Jags disrespect?
I think it’s less disrespecting Jacksonville, than the excitement generated by Deshaun Watson’s return in Houston. As much as I like Watson, he did just go 3-3 as a starter and will be playing in just his eighth NFL game come September. And, you know, O’Brien is still there.
Meanwhile, Jason Mendoza’s favorite team has improved on both sides of the ball, but especially on defense where they added first round pick Taven Bryan out of Florida to a line rotation that was already pretty damn good. The concern, as it should be with the Jags, is on Blake Bortles but if he continues on the upswing he began last season, he and the team should be fine.
Why not the Titans?
I’ve already dropped Vrabel’s name as a a terrible head coaching hire, but he’s not coaching in a vacuum here. While he might not have been the right man to lead Tennessee, he brought in some solid assistants including offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, recently of the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons.
This is an offense that will put up a lot of points and if you’re one that’s looking to get a solid return on a bet, Tennessee has a real shot at a division title this year.
For the Colts it’s all down to pure Luck
If Andrew Luck is healthy and on the field in September, this +600 will disappear quick. He is the best quarterback in the division and one of the best in the league. There’s plenty of reasons to be nervous, especially in how hands-off the Colts have been with Luck this preseason.
But if Luck is healthy, the Colts will win 10-11 games and at 6/1 you’re going to need a bigger wallet.
