We’re heading into the smart money picks of my NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings with the guys that could legitimately see action this season, if not in the next couple of seasons as long as they go to the right team.
If you want to recap everything up until now, you can read Part One and Part Two of my NFL Draft Quarterback Preamble. Here’s Part One of my NFL Draft QB Rankings, Part Two and Part Three.
For a quick recap, 10. C.J. Beathard, Iowa. 9. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech. 8. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh. 7. Davis Webb, California. 6. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss. 5. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, 6-3, 230 pounds
65.7 completion percentage, 5,052 yards, 41 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 285 yards rushing, 12 rushing TDs
Before I really dug into scouting these quarterbacks, in my mind I had Mahomes as my No. 3 guy, but that’s what homework is for. There are plenty of reasons to like Mahomes and I’ve seen him as high as the No. 2 QB on other writer’s list. So why isn’t he higher on mine?
Mahomes is the perfect example of why I value overall stats less than absolutely anything when evaluating a quarterback. Those numbers up there under his bolded name are outstanding and absolutely meaningless when you pair them with Texas Tech’s 5-7 record, non-Bowl season and 0-3 record against ranked teams. You can’t blame Mahomes when his defense didn’t show up, but at the same time throwing for 540 yards and five touchdowns is a hell of a lot less impressive when you still loose 68-55 (like the Red Raiders did to Arizona State last season).
Against Iowa State and West Virginia, Mahomes disappeared for long stretches of the game. This is why being “clutch” is my most important trait when looking at a quarterback and Mahomes simply wasn’t. In one-score games, Mahomes was 1-4. And, sure, one of those losses was a missed extra point, but all that would have done was sent the game into overtime. It wouldn’t have won it.
Now that I’ve bad-mouthed him, there’s still a reason Mahomes is so high on my list. He makes his reads quick, usually by the time his back foot hits the ground. His pocket presence comes and goes and he has the urge to roll out when rushed sometimes, which is always a sack in the NFL. What does show up well on film for Mahomes is his ability to sling the ball accurately anywhere on the field with bad feet, which, you know, happens when you don’t move around well in the pocket.
I’m not sure there’s another draftable skill position player on this offseason and Mahomes made them all look incredible by basically handing them the ball in their routes. He could really turn into something at the NFL level, but I think he needs to be developed for at least a season before anybody thinks about throwing him into live fire.
Ideal situation: Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants
3. Brad Kaaya, Miami, 6-4. 215 pounds
62.0 completion percentage, 3.532 yards, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions, one rushing TD
There’s a lot to love about Kaaya and 20 years ago, he’d probably the top rated quarterback in this draft coming out of the Miami program, but it’s 2017 and Miami isn’t quite what it used to be. That being said, Kaaya has all the tools, but more important than that, he plays the position like a natural. He’s not an athlete that’s a quarterback, he was born to play this position and, frankly, that’s the thing I think a lot of scouts, coaches and general managers miss. Yes, you can improve a QB through coaching and work, but you can’t craft a quarterback that way. He’s either born with the skills or he isn’t.
Kaaya is a pinpoint accurate passer with plenty of arm to make any NFL throw. The speed at the next level shouldn’t be an issue for him either, as Miami continues to produce NFL-level speedsters at the skill position if nothing else. If Kaaya can hit Philip Dorsett in stride when he was a sophomore, he can chuck it downfield far enough for any NFL wideout.
Kaaya is decent in the pocket and he’s tough. I don’t think he steps up enough and probably takes more hits than he needs to by not using his feet. At the same time, he has a knack for getting the ball out of his hands before he takes contact and it’s on the money. He does like to take risks and let his receivers work for him, coming back for the catch and going over defensive backs, but the guys that can make those plays consistently against NFL-level defensive backs can be counted on one hand. And unless he’s throwing to Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. or A.J. Green, he’ll probably need to be more careful.
There’s a hole of tight losses in the middle of Miami’s season, four in a row, that Kaaya could have flipped three of them by making a single extra play. Shit like that matters.
I don’t see Kaaya as a Day One starter, but he’s a guy that can take over a team late and give them a hell of a lot of hope for the future.
Ideal situation: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals
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