Having good running backs is, quite possibly, the single biggest element needed to win a fantasy football championship. With NFL offenses evolving and fewer workhorse running backs, drafting the position is hard and this leads to backs getting drafted too early.
Coming into 2017, these backs are highly regarded by many and are worth having on your fantasy team. The problem is these backs are overvalued and reaching on these players may hurt your team. Either let someone else grab these players or wait to see if they slide down an extra round or two. Here are five running backs to avoid drafting early.
Marshawn Lynch
Oakland Raiders
After leaving football for a year and doing all sorts of random things, including biking around Scotland and guest starring on Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Lynch makes his triumph return to the NFL. Early signs are pointing to Lynch being in good shape, but will he be able to last a full season? Since 2012, Lynch’s average rush attempts per game have declined every season, from 19.7 in 2012 to 15.9 in 2015. It is likely he see that number decrease again, to somewhere around 14, which still makes him fantasy relevant, but not a top-12 back.
The good news is that he’s playing for an excellent offense and he’s going to be the goal-line back. However, the Raiders are looking at a deep run and they have three good runners in Lynch, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. The latter two will mix-in to limit Lynch’s touches and preserve him for the length of the season. That means he may not deliver that Top-12 value.
Carlos Hyde
San Francisco 49ers
With another change of regime in San Francisco, Carlos Hyde may soon come to find his days as a lead back in the Bay Area are coming to an end. Hyde has only played 20 games over the last two seasons, rushing for over 100 yards just three times and failing to reach the end zone in 55% of those games. Additionally, Hyde may see Joe Williams see his role in the offens
e increase over the season, making Hyde less valuable come the most important time of the year, the fantasy playoffs.
We’ve heard a lot of mixed news about Hyde. At first, he was a possible surprise cut. Then NFL training camps started and he was one of the best performers. However, the one consistent is that the 49ers offense is projected to be pretty bad. On top of that, the new regime drafted a running back that could eventually supplant him. Avoid Hyde unless he slips into, at minimum, the fourth round.
Mark Ingram
New Orleans Saints
After a great season in 2016, where Mark Ingram finished as a top-12 back, expectations for 2017 are for the former Heisman winner to see his role reduced in the Saints offense. This expectation is primarily due to the Saints signing former MVP running back Adrian Peterson. The two backs will likely be splitting carries, with the hot hand taking the lead as the game progresses. Avoid reaching to high on Ingram as his ceiling this season is lower than it has been in previous years.
Mike Gillislee
New England Patriots
Although Gillislee is the most talented back in New England, Bill Belichick’s usage of running backs is very difficult to judge. Since 2004, when Corey Dillon set the franchise record for rushing yards with 1635, the Patriots have only had three running backs rush for over 1000 yards and only Steven Ridley exceeded 1200 yards. The backfield for the Patriots is busy and if Gillislee suffers through any sort of fumbling problem or struggles in pass protection, he could easily see his playing time decline significantly. This makes Gillislee risky to take early in fantasy drafts.
Ezekiel Elliott
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliot is a great running back and could win you a championship…if you get him for the right price. The problem is if you draft Elliot too early, and presumably reach on Darren McFadden or Alfred Morris as a handcuff, you start the season in the hole. Considering Elliot is not set to return until November 5, makes it foolish to draft him in the first round and even risky in the second round. If he slides down to you at the backend of the second or later, and you have a bell cow back like David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell, take Elliott. Otherwise, avoid using a high pick on a player who will only play ten games maximum this year.
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