In this NFL Game Preview and Picks, the Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) host the Cleveland Browns (3-11) at Arrowhead Stadium this week. The game will begin Sunday, Dec 27 at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
Kansas City won easily over the Ravens 34-14 last week. Marcus Peters led the Kansas City defense in the win, totaling two tackles and two interceptions. Charcandrick West also had a big day, contributing 76 yards and a TD on 16 attempts. Cleveland didn’t have the same success as Kansas City, getting beat by the Seahawks 30-13. Duke Johnson Jr. had a solid outing for the Browns, racking up 85 total yards. He was a force as both a runner (46 yards) and receiver (39 yards).
Kansas City is a heavy 13-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 45 points.
Heading into Week 16 of league action, the Chiefs are 9-5 Straight Up (SU) and 8-6 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Chiefs have records of 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. They average 24.8 points per game and will look to capitalize against the Cleveland defense. The Browns have the 27th-ranked road scoring defense in the NFL, giving up 29.4 points per game. The Chiefs run game will attempt to benefit from a poor rush defense. The Browns currently rank 31st in the NFL with 134.9 rushing yards allowed per game. The Chiefs’ defense stand to fare well this week when they face off against Cleveland’s offense. Teams playing the Chiefs at home average a league-worst 16.2 points per game. The Browns may have a difficult time running against the Chiefs. The Browns average 86.5 yards per game on the ground, 29th in the NFL. A vital part of the game will be if the Browns can protect their quarterback from Kansas City’s vicious defense. It averages the third-most sacks in the league with 2.9 per game. Cleveland will want to build a solid lead, because the Chiefs are one of the top-scoring teams during the fourth quarter. They’ve averaged 8.2 points in the final quarter this season. On special teams, Kansas City has some playmakers. They average 102.4 return yards per game, third in the NFL.
Moving to the road team, the Browns have 3-11 SU and 4-9-1 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Cleveland has a record of 1-4 for both SU and ATS. Lately, the Browns have boosted their run defense. They’re allowing 112.2 rushing YPG over their last five matchups, less than their average for the season (134.9 rush YPG). Don’t be surprised to see a lot of Cleveland’s offense on game day. The team has an average time of possession of 32:50 per home game, ranking fifth in the league.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, ATS Winner – KC, O/U – Under
Notes
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games when playing Cleveland.
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games on the road.
Cleveland is 2-1 SU this season, when leading at the half. Kansas City is 7-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle this season, and 1-2 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Cleveland is only 1-9 SU this season when allowing at least 3.0 sacks in a game. The Kansas City defense is averaging 3.0 sacks over its last five games.
According to overall NFL pass rankings, Cleveland is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its 14th-ranked offensive passing game will face the 17th-ranked pass defense of Kansas City, while its 22nd-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 28th-ranked aerial attack of the Chiefs.
Cleveland has allowed 29.4 points per game on the road, which ranks it only 27th in the league. Kansas City has scored 24.8 points per game at home (ranked 13th overall).
