We’ve had the combine, we’ve just begun our Pro Days, and with teams making their salary cap cuts, we have an idea of where they need to bring in bodies. So has our draft board changed since we last took a look at it back in January? Let’s take a look.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
I’ve made it clear all last season and heading into the offseason that I think any team that drafts Jameis Winston is making a mistake. With each passing day, through the combine and now after it, it seems clear to me that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are willing to make that mistake. The upside to this pick has no ceiling. Winston is a smart player on the field with all the attributes you’re looking for in a quarterback and the win-loss record to prove it. Off the field, obviously, it’s another story.
But Winston did the damage control he needed to do at the combine and won converts all over the place. While the city of Tampa Bay doesn’t seem like the best place for a kid like Winston with its one strip club for every three citizens ratio, it would be difficult to find a better head coach than Lovie Smith to transition Winston into not only a legitimate NFL quarterback, but also a decent human being. Smith and the Bucs seem prepared to take on the challenge.
If Winston takes the lesson that Johnny Manziel should have taught every incoming rookie last year, he’ll be worth this pick this year and for the next 15 seasons.
2. Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Leonard Williams is a popular pick in most mock drafts I see, but I think the Titans tipped their hand at the combine. Unless somebody wants to jump up and trade into this spot, I think Marcus Mariota goes to Tennessee. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is no fool and knows better than anybody that the inability to find a quarterback after Kurt Warner retired is why he isn’t still coaching in Arizona. He won’t roll the dice with Zach Mettenberger if he doesn’t have to. And if for some reason the Bucs flip the script and take Mariota, the Titans will take Winston. The quarterbacks are going 1-2, either way.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Leonard Williams, DT, USC
For months I’ve had the Jaguars locked in on Alabama wideout Amari Cooper, but the more I think about it, the more this team needs to build up its defense and who better to pick than the best player in the draft?
The Jaguars have salary cap money to burn and, in fact, have to increase their spending over the next two seasons or pay a fine, so there’s no excuse for them not to be very active in free agency, even though they’ll have to over-pay to get bodies in Jacksonville. They do need an upgrade at wide receiver and running back, but this is a deep draft in both and there’ll be plenty of big-time free agents they can plug into those roles. What they won’t be able to find, unless they sign Ndomukong Suh, is a defensive tackle like Williams. Plug him in next to Sen’Derrick Marks on that defensive line and the Jags are going to be a real problem in the AFC South.
4. Oakland Raiders – Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
The Raiders have serious needs at corner, wide receiver and running back, but none of that matters if you can’t get after the quarterback and the Raiders front four was terrible at it last season. Free agent Justin Tuck may end up cut before I finish writing this paragraph and C.J. Wilson could have been outperformed by a sled dummy last year. They need a disruptive defensive end more than anything and Gregory is the guy.
5
. Washington Redskins – Dante Fowler Jr, OLB, Florida
Ryan Kerrigan was the only Redskins defender that scared anybody as a pass rusher. Washington may look at their front line with Danny Shelton or Shane Ray, but Fowler is a beast and is graded too high to pass up here.
6. New York Jets – Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
A bit of a reach? Sure, but a team made a similar move a few years ago when the Miami Dolphins took Ryan Tannehill and that turned out to be one of the few good things they’ve done in recent years. Todd Bowles, just coming over from Arizona, knows the danger of coming into the season with the quarterback position unsettled and how a bad QB can mess up all your late season plans. Geno Smith is a fine back-up, but he’s not a starter and everyone knows that now. Hundley is the best option on the table for the Jets and will have more of an impact on the 2015 season for them than any other player they’ll pick in this spot.
7. Chicago Bears – Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
Vic Fangio will be converting the Bears 4-3 into a 3-4 under John Fox and needs an outside linebacker pass rusher to make it work. Beasley was a beast at the combine and was already rated high before he got there. The Bears turn in this card fast.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
Dan Quinn is doing just the opposite in Atlanta, turning a 3-4 defense into a 4-3. He knows the value of big corners, so Trae Waynes is a real possibility here, but Shelton will bulk up the middle of that defensive line and that’s what the Falcons needs the most.
9. New York Giants – Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
The Giants franchised Jason Pierre-Paul but have nothing of any real worth on the other side. Returning defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo treasures defensive lineman and especially outside pass rushers, building New York’s line that won it two Super Bowls and the only good thing he left behind as the head coach of he St. Louis Rams.
10. St. Louis Rams – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
The fact that Cooper is still available at 10 might be a long shot, but if he is, there’s no way the Rams pass him up. They need some help on the interior offensive line and outside linebacker, but should address that in free agency. They have to take the best player available and Cooper could be the second-coming of Tory Holt. Cooper is a plug-and-play starter.
11. Minnesota Vikings – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
White is rated above Cooper on some boards, but I don’t see it. That doesn’t mean he isn’t the second best wideout in this draft. The Vikings needs to give Teddy Bridgewater another passing target to solidify that position and score points, especially if they can’t get Adrian Peterson back in the fold. And they won’t.
12. Cleveland Browns – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Yes, three wide receivers in a row. With Josh Gordon’s suspension, there’s no doubt his time in Cleveland is over one way or the other and if they have any chance of getting something out of Josh McNown or Johnny Manziel, they need some help at receiver.
13. New Orleans Saints – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Saints need another pass rusher, after finishing 25th in the league in sacks last season, but they have a disaster brewing in the defensive backfield if they don’t fix it. Waynes is the best corner in the draft and will be a day-one starter for them and can’t afford to look in later rounds. The DBs are the weakest area of this draft.
14. Miami Dolphins – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The Dolphins have already built a decent offensive line, but starting right tackle Dallas Thomas struggled last season after being moved back and forth between tackle and guard. It might be the time to move Thomas inside for good and let Peat take over outside.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Alvin Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky
NaVarro Bowman missed the entire 2014 season and Patrick Willis missed most of it. Both guys may end up cap casualties before this offseason is over and the team needs to think about the future, and may even need to replace Aldon Smith before all is said and done. Dupree fits into either spot for them.
16. Houston Texans – Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
The Texans need a quarterback themselves and should look at one in Round 2 or 3, but none of the other guys are worth a first-round pick, even though Baylor’s Bryce Petty might be tempting. Collins fills a need and is the best safety in the draft. No reason to screw around and do anything else here.
17. San Diego Chargers – La’el Collins, OT, LSU
The Chargers wilted late in the season and a big reason was pressure on Philip Rivers. Collins will help shore up a line on a team that isn’t that far off from another playoff berth and potentially more.
18. Kansas City Chiefs – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
The Chiefs have just one legit wide receiver on the roster right now with Dwayne Bowe and were horrible in the red zone last season. Green-Beckham was a touchdown machine two seasons ago, scoring 12 for Mizzou before being kicked off the team. Green-Beckham is raw and needs to learn how to run routes, but at 6-foot-6 with 4.4 speed, the Chiefs can’t afford to pass him up.
19. Cleveland Browns – (from Buffalo) Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
The Browns robbed the Buffalo Bills last year with this trade and get to capitalize on it by grabbing one of the top defensive tackles in the draft. The Browns starting defensive line produced all of six sacks combined last season.
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
The Eagles shocked the world Tuesday by trading LeSean McCoy to the Bills and opening up a spot at running back. This is where the rubber meets the road for them. For Kelly’s offense to work, he needs a real threat at the position, especially with the questions he has at quarterback. Todd Gurley is the best option, but his health raises a question and Gordon is a sure thing.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Scherff may end up a guard for the Bengals and if so this is the perfect place to pick the versatile lineman who had to sit longer than he probably needed to. At 21 Scherff, rated the top offensive lineman on multiple boards, is a steal.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cody Prewitt, FS, Ole Miss
The Steelers run their team like a mystery and letting Jason Worilds go might mean they look hard at a defensive end or outside linebacker here, but the Troy Polamalu era is coming to an end and they need to line up his replacement, even if he doesn’t have Troy’s flowing locks.
23. Detroit Lions – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
Ndamukong Suh is already history, so let him go break some other team’s salary cap, Detroit. Goldman isn’t Suh, but in the right situation he’ll be solid and the Lions don’t have the choice at this point unless they work free agency hard.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
With the possibility that Larry Foote has played his last down, the Cardinals need to shore up the middle of their defense and McKinney is the best inside linebacker in the draft.
25. Carolina Panthers – T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
The Panthers have a need at offensive tackle and still have their pick of most of the top-rated guys at No. 25. Journeyman tackle Mike Remmers played well in the final stretch for Carolina, but he’s a better back-up than a starter. Carolina needs to think long term.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Depth at corner cost the Ravens last season, but they have to replace Justin Forsett, who they likely won’t re-sign at running back. Gurley is everything the Ravens want in a running back without the left jab. As long as he’s healthy in time for training camp, he’ll be a big-play difference maker for Baltimore.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
The Cowboys need a corner and Peters is the No 2 ranked guy so he falls right into their laps here. The Cowboys have money they have to spend in free agency just to keep from paying a fine, so they shouldn’t enter the draft with a ton of needs.
28. Denver Broncos – Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
With Wade Phillips returning to the Broncos as defensive coordinator, a move to a 3-4 is inevitable and the team will need the inside linebackers to make it happen. Kendricks is the next best option after McKinney is off the board.
29. Indianapolis Colts – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
The Colts are another team with a full wallet this free agency so they can fill a lot of holes before the draft and should. Flowers makes sense for them for the same reason that Scherff works for the Bengals, he can play multiple positions across the line.
30. Green Bay Packers – Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
The Packers have been playing with scrubs at nose tackle for years, plugging other team’s cast-offs into that hole and hoping he can just take up space. Last year’s starter Letroy Guion was just that. Guion wasn’t terrible, but it’s time to take the position seriously. Phillips will be more than just a body. He’ll be a difference-maker.
31. Seattle Seahawks – Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
The Seahawks’ wide receiver corps has overachieved all year and Jermaine Kearse is a budding star, but they need another guy so Doug Baldwin can stay in the slot where he belongs. Strong gives Russell Wilson a 6 ft. 3 in. passing target that has lived in the end zone for Arizona State the last two seasons.
32. New England Patriots – Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
In my last mock I had the Patriots without a first-round pick as a punishment for DeflateGate and it may still happen. Truthfully the Browns and Falcons could all end up losing their first-round picks this season as punishment, in which case the draft gets really interesting. Since the Pats are picking last, there’s no reason to do that in this one and, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me if Roger Goodell completely lets them off the hook. So the question becomes then, what do the Patriots do? They need a corner and two safeties, especially if they don’t re-sign their free agents. They should though.
They have the cap money to do it and, in fact, are one of the teams heading for a fine if they don’t spend more. There’s no excuse to let Derrelle Revis, Patrick Chung or Devin McCourty go. But the Pats play by their own drummer. And rules, but that’s a whole other issue. A lot of picks make sense for them here and they’re as likely to trade down out of the first round as they are to keep the pick and add a good player to their team. If I’m Tom Brady, I want another tight end to replace Aaron Hernandez who, for some reason, hasn’t been a member of the team since shooting a guy in the face.
