NFL Picks: The San Francisco 49ers faced the loss of their season last week but narrowly escaped a near death experience with a breathtaking 27-24 overtime win at New Orleans as they continue their quest for a playoff spot with little margin for error. The glory days of the New York Giants are clearly over as they have been rendered as an also ran in the NFC playoff race. The Giants defense has been rendered helpless and the offense is a one man show with QB Eli Manning.
The New York Giants will host the San Francisco 49ers at MetLife Stadium on Sunday with coverage on FOX starting at 1 PM ET. The 49ers opened as a four point favorite with a total of 43.5.
Walking a Tight Rope
San Francisco is 5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread, and 4-5 under the total and in third place in the NFC West behind upstart Arizona and defending champ Seattle. The 49ers offense has been inconsistent and ranks 17th overall in the NFL and 21st for scoring.
The defense remains solid and ranks second overall in the NFL. Phil Dawson was clutch last week with a 45 yard field goal to send the game into overtime and then a game winning 35 yard field goal in OT. Running back Frank Gore is down to 4.0 yards per carry which illustrates the 49ers drop of offensive production.
A Giant Disaster
The Giants are 3-6 both SU and ATS. Big Blue is riding a four game SU and ATS losing streak after last week’s 38-17 loss at Seattle. The Giants defense ranks dead last overall in the NFL while the offense ranks 20th for scoring.
Matchup and Pick
The 49ers have been one of the better betting values in any sport when playing on the road. San Francisco has lost just six out of their last 20 away games against the spread with five out of their last seven away games going under the total.
The Giants have seen their betting value erode at home recently. Big Blue has paid out in just five out of their last 12 games at MetLife Stadium with five out of their last eight home games going under the total.
The Giants have dominated this head to head series with six payouts in their last seven games with the 49ers. The 49ers and Giants have gone under the total in four out of their last six meetings. The Giants have just one loss ATS in their last five home games against San Francisco with four out of the last six games between the 49ers and Giants at New York going under the total.
With the public betting money likely to be heavy on the 49ers we’ll make the contrarian call with the Giants and under the total.
