NFL picks: After last year’s crash and burn season that cost head coach Gary Kubiak his job the Houston Texans have shown some of the potential under new head coach Bill O’Brien that they were touted to have under Kubiak but never quite managed to deliver. The Texans will have a golden opportunity to prove that they are for real on the national stage against an Indianapolis Colts team that has the metrics of a team that could be vulnerable to be taken in the AFC South.
The Texans will host the Colts at NRG Stadium on Thursday night with coverage on CBS starting at 8:25 PM ET. The Colts opened as a two-point favorite.
Number One in Luck
Indianapolis is 3-2 straight up, 4-1 against the spread, and 4-1 over the total after their 20-13 home payout over Baltimore. QB Andrew Luck triggers the NFL’s top ranked pass attack and the defense ranks 11th for points allowed.
Metrics Concern for Texans
Houston is 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, and 2-3 under the total after their 20-17 overtime loss at Dallas. The Texans rank an alarming 23rd in the NFL for total and scoring offense and rank 26th for total defense.
Matchup and Pick
Indianapolis has been a decent road value with 11 payouts in their last 18 away games as seven out of their last eight road games have gone over the total. Houston has paid out in just three out of their last 10 home games although they did get the money in three out of their most recent four home games as four out of their last five home games have gone under the total. The Colts have covered the spread in six out of their last nine games with the Texans as six out of the last seven games between the Colts and Texans have gone under the total.
Houston has been at their best against the Colts at home however with six payouts in their last eight home games vs. the Colts as two out of the last three meetings at Houston between the Colts and Texans have gone under the total. We’ll call for Houston (+2) to get the money in this high profile home game and under the total.
