NFL Picks: The New England Patriots and QB Tom Brady were written off for dead after their 41-14 Monday night loss at Kansas City when they fell to 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread. Since that fateful night the Pats have been on a rampage with seven consecutive SU wins and five payouts in that span as the top team in the AFC. The Green Bay Packers have been playing their best football of the season to take over sole possession of first place in the NFC North.
In a potential Super Bowl Preview the Green Bay Packers will host the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field on Sunday with coverage on CBS starting at 4:25 PM ET. Green Bay opened as a three point favorite with a total of 58.
Paying Pats
New England is 9-2 straight up, 7-4 against the spread, and 8-3 over the total. The Patriots are coming off a 34-9 home payout against Detroit for their third consecutive cover. New England ranks seventh in the NFL for total offense and first for scoring offense. Brady has a 101.0 QB rating with a 26-6 TD-INT ratio.
In the Green and Gold
Green Bay is 8-3 SU, 6-4-1ATS, and 9-2 over the total. The Pack is coming off a 24-21 win at Minnesota as 7.5 point overlays. The Pack has not lost ATS at home in five games this year. Green Bay ranks second in the NFL for scoring offense.
Matchup and Pick
As well as New England has played through the years it can be surprising to find that they have not been a reliable road betting commodity. The Patriots have paid out in just five out of their last 17 away matchups with 12 out of their last 20 away games going over the total.
Green Bay on the other hand has been a strong long term betting value at Lambeau Field. The Packers have lost just five out of their last 19 home games against the spread with seven out of their last nine home games going over the total.
Green Bay has ruled the payout window in this head to head series with just one loss against the spread in their last seven games against the Patriots. The Pats and Pack have gone under the total in three out of their last four matchups. Green Bay has paid out in their last four home games against New England with three out of those four games going under the total.
Green Bay is a dominant home team and gets the call.
