The conference championship games are both rematches of games from the regular season, so we have a little evidence to work with as we handicap this week’s final four. The NFC Championship Game is a rematch held in the same stadium as the regular season game, while the AFC Championship Game switches venues Will these details matter? Let’s take a closer look at each contest:
NFC Championship: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Odds: Saints -3.5
The Saints defeated the Rams in the regular season, 45-35, but what does it mean for this time around? It does mean that the Rams’ defense probably won’t slow down the Saints a lot, but in terms of who wins and loses, it is hard to assign too much value to that game as an indicator of what will happen on Sunday. The Saints crushed the Philadelphia Eagles at home this past regular season, winning 48-7. In the rematch this past weekend in the NFC Divisional Playoff Game, the Saints were extremely fortunate to win by a 20-14 score as the Eagles committed a turnover inside the New Orleans 30-yard line in the final two minutes.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
The reality of the situation is that the Saints’ offense has noticeably cooled off since that game and the middle third of the season. They’ve been held in check a lot more often and for the Rams, this time around, they’ll have star cornerback Aqib Talib. The Rams ranked third-best in opponent quarterback rating in the games Talib played this season, and were third-worst when he was out.
They know that if they can take away, or at least contain, Michael Thomas, the Saints have problems scoring. Thomas is quite possibly the best receiver in the NFL, but if opponents double-team him, the Saints have not been as adept in recent weeks at finding ways to score touchdowns. The Rams might not win this game if it is a complete shootout in the 40s, but if New Orleans scores only 27 or 30 points, the Saints are in trouble against the Rams’ rushing attack, which has both Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson as threats. Remember that the Saints also lost defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins last week, who not only is one of the top run stuffers on the team but also had eight sacks. Those factors should lead to a Rams win.
Pick: Rams +3.5
AFC Championship: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: Chiefs -3
The Patriots are 3-5 on the road this year and everyone will talk about the Patriots’ home-road splits this season going into this game, but the temperatures for Sunday’s contest might be no higher than 10 degrees. This is a cold-weather game and the Patriots have ample experience playing in these kinds of games whereas the Chiefs do not. The Chiefs were fine against the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round, but Indianapolis is a dome team not suited for the elements. New England will have no problem making this adjustment.
It is normal in sports for experience to take over in meetings like this one. Patrick Mahomes is probably the NFL’s MVP for 2018, but this is his first AFC title game. He should be nervous while Tom Brady will be playing in his 13th AFC Championship Game, a record which might not ever be broken. That difference in experience makes it hard to trust the Chiefs and easy to trust the Patriots.
Yes, the Patriots were much worse on the road this year and yes, the Chiefs defense was much better at home. However, in a one-game showdown, sometimes these things don’t matter as much because the Patriots will be well-prepared and focused. Few coaches draw up gameplans better than Bill Belichick and we’ll see that on Sunday. Mahomes might be the future, but the old guard will protect for one more season.
Pick: Patriots +3
