Cincinnati is putting its 2-0 preseason record on the line as they travel to Buffalo for a Week 3 preseason contest. The Bills are 1-1 in the preseason, and they just defeated the Browns 19-17 in Week 2.
Odds
Bengals +1.5, 41.5
Bills -1.5, 41.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills Preview
The third week of the preseason is by far the most important for teams. For at least a half, it will mostly be starters versus starters. It’s the last chance for coaches to evaluate starters at every position before the regular season begins, and it can be a determining factor in position battles.
Related: NFL Preseason Betting Guide
Buffalo has a position battle brewing at the most essential position — rookie quarterback Josh Allen is starting against the Bengals, and has the opportunity to win the starting job entering the season. Presumed starter A.J. McCarron injured his collarbone, and it’s unclear when he will be healthy enough to play. But if Allen plays well against the Bengals, he will likely be the starter Week 1 at the Ravens.
Allen completed nine of 13 passes for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. More importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over during the game. Nathan Peterman also looked solid, so it will be between those two unless McCarron comes back sooner than expected. Neither Allen nor Peterman will have LeSean McCoy in the backfield, so it might be more challenging for them to move the ball and score.
The Bengals are 2-0, and they were especially productive on defense in their last outing against the Cowboys. They have some weapons on offense, but the offensive line is still a major concern, and Andy Dalton has turnover issues. Cincinnati needs to work on its offense, so expect to see the starters on the field for at least two quarters.
Neither of these teams is projected to make the postseason, but the AFC is wide open and nearly every team is capable of contending for a Wild Card spot.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills Pick
The total has gone under in six of Cincinnati’s last nine preseason games as an underdog. This preseason, the Bengals have been more productive. However, Marvin Lewis was 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread in four preseason games a season ago. Lewis is 34-28-1 against the spread in the preseason during his career. The over is only 30-33 in Bengals games under Lewis in the preseason.
Buffalo coach Sean McDermott is 2-4 against the spread in the preseason, and the under is 2-4 during his tenure. The Bills are 4-12 straight up in their last 16 preseason games at home. They are also 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 preseason home games.
The over has hit in six of Buffalo’s last eight preseason home games, and it has hit in four of the last five preseason home games as a favorite. The Bills are only 2-6 straight up and against the spread in the last eight preseason games as a favorite.
Both teams have plenty of work to do — especially on the offensive side of the ball. So, it wouldn’t be surprising to see both starting offenses on the field into the second half of the game. Bettors might be cautious about taking the over with two struggling offenses, but both Lewis and McDermott will want to see production on that side of the ball.
The Bills are short favorites, but their track record at home in the preseason hasn’t been very strong. Look for the Bengals to continue their impressive preseason with another win against Buffalo.
Straight up pick: Bengals 23, Bills 20
ATS pick: Bengals +1.5
Total: Over 41.5
