We begin our annual NFL Divisional Previews and Predictions where we always do, the AFC East. It’s the home of the defending Super Bowl 51 Champions, a team many are picking to return to the big game this season. The fact is, the Patriots have dominated this division since 2000 in a way few teams have in the history of the sport. And while a nice, healthy dose of cheating can be blamed for their early success, in recent years you can’t even pretend, and trust me I’ve tried, that deflated footballs have anything to do with a solid decade of AFC destruction.
Key = Z – Home Field Advantage, Y – Division Champion, X – Wild Card
O/U wins: 12.5
My Prediction: 12-4
There’s this notion that the Patriots have assembled some kind of “super team” and the over-under line shows that. Putting the line at 12.5 is crazy high, even for a team that went 14-2 last season. A lot happened in 2016 to make that possible, including the utter collapse of anything resembling a legitimate AFC East foe. Not that it’ll be any different this year, but a 12-4 prediction is far from a slight.
Here’s the thing to remember at “super teams” when it comes to the NFL. They never, ever win. Remember the 2000 Washington Redskins? They’d piled up their roster with expensive free agents and high draft picks. They didn’t even make the playoffs, finishing 8-8 and their head coach, Norv Turner, got fired with three games to go in the season. The 2011 Philadelphia Eagles were another “super team,” again picked to win it all and, again, they missed the playoffs entirely going 8-8. The Patriots aren’t going 8-8. It’s just probably going to feel like it.
This is a New England squad that, sure, did go to two Super Bowls over the last three seasons and won them both. But there’s no argument that the reason the Patriots won those two championships was based more on incredibly stupid coaching decisions from their opponents than on New England’s actual talent. In Super Bowl 49, Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll wanted Russell Wilson to be the game’s MVP and face of the franchise, so he called a pass play on second and goal instead of running the ball in for the win with Marshawn Lynch, a guy the Patriots defense hadn’t been able to stop all day. Wilson threw a pick and the Pats got their first non Spygate title.
The Atlanta Falcons, up 28-3, merely had to run the ball three times and kick a field goal deep in New England’s territory in the third quarter to seal the victory. Instead, Kyle Shanahan wanted to show off and run up the score, a sack and a holding call later and the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history was underway. The Patriots are two dumb coaching decisions away from being this decade’s Buffalo Bills.
In my Bold Predictions, I looked into my crystal ball and saw Tom Brady finally going over the quarterback cliff that all his peers eventually crash down. Peyton Manning did. Brett Favre did. Sure, Brady is arguably the best quarterback of all time, but he’s still human and he’s 40. There’s no guarantee he’ll even play a full season and, frankly, sitting out the first four games of 2016 was probably the best thing that ever happened to him and the Patriots for his health last season. And that’s even counting the phantom concussion Gisele Bundchen said he got.
Make no mistake, the loss of Julian Edelman this season will be felt. Yes, New England has traded around for a nice group of wideouts for Brady to throw to, but don’t kid yourself. Edelman was targeted something like nine times a game for a reason. Would the Patriots have won Super Bowl 51 without him? You already know the answer.
It’s my respect for the franchise, what a diminished Brady is still capable of accomplishing, and a stout defense that makes me hand them this division for what will probably be the last time for a while. This is the final run and I still think Brady retires after the season.
O/U wins: 7.5
My Prediction: 10-6
If Ryan Tannehill hadn’t gone down, I probably would bump the Dolphins up an extra win. As it is, Jay Cutler isn’t much of a downgrade and could be in the running for NFL Comeback Player of the Year after taking a very talented Miami team back to the playoffs.
Talent wise, the Dolphins are better than the Patriots at every position on offense except quarterback. You don’t have to take my word for it, you can just look at every single fantasy draft you participated in. DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry should be as solid a three wideout corps as any in the league. Miami has solidified its offensive line and Jay Akayi, unless he suffers some kind of nutty drop off, is one of the Top Five running backs in the NFL.
The Dolphins spent their free agent money on defense, bringing in Rey Maualuga and Lawrence Timmons to upgrade the linebacking corps. As good as their pass rush was, the addition of William Hayes in a trade with the Los Angeles Rams and rookie Charles Harris should boost that. Add to that an improved defensive backfield with rookie Cordrea Tankersly, and double-digit wins should not be out of the question, especially in the AFC East with four almost guaranteed victories against the next two teams on our list.
What makes the Dolphins so interesting as a foil for the Patriots is head coach Adam Gase. Gase was one of the few offensive coordinators that could consistently flummox a Bill Belichick team. Gase went 1-2 against Bellichick with the Denver Broncos, but one of those losses was 34-31 in overtime in 2013. In his final game against the Super Genius, he called a 26-16 victory that sent Denver to Super Bowl 48. Gase’s team last year lost twice to the Patriots, but were in both games. All it takes is one to flip this whole division.
To be continued in AFC East Predictions and Previews Part 2
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