We wrap up our NFL previews and predictions of the AFC bracket with the AFC West. Just looking at some of the win totals the oddsmakers have put together, you’d think this will be a competitive division. Spoiler alert; it will not.
Key = Z – Home Field Advantage, Y – Division Champion, X – Wild Card
O/U wins: 10.0
My Prediction: 13-3
Just as late as last week the oddsmakers had this total at 9.5 and that was, to pick a couple of descriptive words, completely insane. It was the veritable license to print money and God bless any of you that listened in to our GMS NFL Podcast who caught that little golden ticket and cashed in. This was a team that could have gone to the Super Bowl last year if Derek Carr hadn’t broke his leg so late in the season. The idea that there was even the slightest change they wouldn’t notch double digit wins in 2017 is ridiculous.
Now, that comes with all the health caveats, but it’s not like Carr is injury prone. A broken leg on a sack isn’t suddenly going to turn him into Chris Chandler. The good news for the Raiders is they probably have the third best offensive line in the NFL (behind Dallas and Tennessee) and a new, scary running back in Marshawn Lynch that will force the defense to play honest. As good as the Oakland offense was last season, expect more this year. Lynch has always been an underrated receiver and with his health issues two years ago, the team would be smart not to just continually use him as a power back, but instead move him around for match up problems.
The Raiders added tight end Jared Cook to an already elite set of pass catchers, led by Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. While the Oakland defense wasn’t even in the middle of the league rankings last season, they’ve improved with another solid draft class and a couple of key free agent acquisitions. Defensive end Khalil Mack remains one of the best pass rushers in the game. They’ve moved the total up to 10.0, but I still think this is an easy money bet if you were so inclined.
O/U wins: 9.0
My Prediction: 10-6
Here’s the two things you can count on with an Andy Reid coached team; they’ll make the playoffs and they will lose in the playoffs. There is no reason to believe this year will be any different for the Chiefs.
What will be interesting to watch is rookie Kareem Hunt take over in the backfield for injured Spencer Ware. Ware was never much more than a placeholder there and if Hunt has a solid season, he’ll keep this job for good. Any thought about Patrick Mahomes II replacing Alex Smith was just downright stupid, no matter what you read on your favorite football forum. Smith is a winner and, sure, Kansas City will move on from him eventually. But it won’t be this season or probably next season. Enjoy that Microsoft Surface tablet, Mahomes. Snap us some good gameday pics for your Instagram.
Smith didn’t get a lot of help from his GM and coach when it comes to wide receivers. It seems ridiculous to me that a gadget and slot guy like Tyreek Hill could be counted on as an outside receiver. Speed kills, but you have to be able to run consistent routes and beat the other team’s best corner. Chris Conley, on the other side, at least has the size and skillset for an outside receiver, but not the experience. Tight end Travis Kelce will remain Smith’s best weapon in the passing game.
While the Raiders didn’t boast a top defense last season, the Chiefs most certainly did, finishing No. 7 in points allowed. The unit has just gotten deeper through the draft and free agent signings after already boasting one of the best linebacker units and defensive backfields in the sport, led by safety Eric Berry and cornerback Marcus Peters.
DENVER BRONCOS
O/U wins: 8.5
My Prediction: 7-9
There is still a ton of talent on the Broncos’ roster, especially on defense in spite of Vance Joseph and John Elway’s best efforts with cutting safety T.J. Ward. What they don’t have is a legitimate NFL starting quarterback in Trevor Siemian. And while Siemian didn’t have a horrible season last year, he also had Wade Phillips’ defense backing him up. Every team Denver is going to face will have a full season of game film on Siemian and it’s going to get ugly.
If Joseph had the balls, he would have gone with Paxton Lynch but since Lynch is hurt, it won’t matter anyway. The truth is, after the Broncos signed Brock Osweiler, Siemian is probably the third best quarterback on the roster. It’s going to hurt them.
Don’t expect this defense to be as elite as it’s been in recent years. Joseph got the job in Denver, but he never even came close to the consistent production as a defensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions as Phillips did wherever he was in charge.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
O/U wins: 7.5
My Prediction: 6-10
I’ve not been shy about criticizing the hiring of Anthony Lynn to coach the Los Angeles Chargers since it happened early in the off-season. All the issues and incompetence that Lynn brings to the table will be on full display as a talented Chargers team not only doesn’t make the playoffs, but doesn’t come close to a winning record.
As long as Philip Rivers is healthy, Los Angeles will have a chance in every game. The problem here is the top half of the division is just too strong and too talented to compete with week to week. The Chargers have a talented defense when everyone is healthy, but that’s not happened in a while, especially for cornerback Jason Verrett, who has spent more time on the training table than on the field over the last couple of seasons.
Keenan Allen’s return and the emergence of Tyrell Williams last season will be a boost to the passing game and as long as Lynn steers clear of interfering with the offense, this is a team that will be fun to watch and put up some points.
To make a wager on any sport, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
