It’s been a solid couple of seasons for the NFC South, a division that was once so bad that a 7-8-1 team won it and made the playoffs a few years ago. That team, the Carolina Panthers, would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl just a season later. The Atlanta Falcons would hold up the NFC banner last season only to see it set ablaze as they surrendered the greatest choke job in Super Bowl history.
Key = Z – Home Field Advantage, Y – Division Champion, X – Wild Card
O/U wins: 8.5
My Prediction: 11-5
Yes, it’s going to be a return to the playoffs for everybody’s favorite dabbing superstar quarterback who pisses off their racist uncle. The Panthers were hit hard by injuries to Cam Newton and their own Super Bowl hangover, but they’ve had a year to shake it off and Newton has had an entire off-season to get healthy in his body and in his head. When he’s on, he’s probably the most dangerous weapon in the NFL. He’s going to be on this season.
Newton will also have the best backfield behind him he’s had since Carolina took him with the No. 1 pick back in 2011. I wasn’t a big believer in Christian McCaffrey as a pro running back, but the kid has won me over with what I saw in the preseason. So much so he’s on one of my fantasy teams. Officially James Stewart is still the starter and he’ll most certainly be the short yardage back, but McCaffrey is going to play a lot and early.
Kelvin Benjamin may have come to camp looking like he’d just cleared out the desert table at the Golden Corral, but he’s back in shape now. Devin Funches, Damiere Byrd and rookie Curtis Samuel should give Newton plenty of playmakers to use in the passing game. And he always has Greg Olsen, one of the two or three best tight ends in the game.
Up front, this is an improved offensive line that the Panthers knew they had to spend money on and did. It won’t just take that, but a commitment from offensive coordinator Mike Shula to call plays that keep Newton out of harms way so he can stay on the field and out of concussion protocol. The referees need to help there too. They’ve been atrocious with their non-calls on Newton and are as much to blame as anyone for his injury woes last year.
Carolina’s defense took a big step backward last season and was ranked in the bottom third of the league. They’ve added some help on the back end with Mike Adams at safety and are still solid up front with Mario Addison, Charles Johnson, Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short.
X – TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
O/U wins: 8.5
My Prediction: 10-6
Marcus Mariota won’t be the only quarterback from the 2015 draft class to punch a ticket to the postseason. Jameis Winston will have all the tools around him, including an improved offensive line, to take the Buccaneers back to the playoffs for the first time since Jon Gruden was run out of town.
Mike Evans is one of the top five wide receivers in the game and could make a run at No. 1 or 2 this season. He’ll have DeSean Jackson on the opposite side of the field, helping create favorable match ups. Once Doug Martin is back from his suspension, the muscle hamster will have plenty of playmaking opportunities as a runner and receiver and O.J. Howard will add a “Gronk” style and sized tight end in the red zone and down the seam.
Last season the Bucs defense finished right at No. 15 in points allowed under defensive coordinator Mike Smith. They’re loaded with stars at every level. While everyone knows who Gerald McCoy is, get ready to learn names like Kwon Alexander and Levonte David. They’re two of the best linebackers in the league.
Any weakness Tampa Bay had on the back end was solved by signing free agent safety T.J. Ward. They now have three starting caliber safeties in Ward, Chris Conte and Keith Tandy. Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves are as solid as any starting corner tandem in the league.
O/U wins: 9.5
My Prediction: 9-7
Here we go. Predicting a 9-7 finish for the Falcons isn’t a complete collapse, but that record won’t be good enough to make the playoffs in 2017. The Super Bowl hangover is real and no team in history deserves to suffer through one than Atlanta, who blew a 28-3 second half lead because of dumbass plays and coaching decisions.
It can not be overstated what a step down Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian is at offensive coordinator. Anyone who thinks the Falcons will be just as prolific on offense in 2017 under Sark has been sharing his whiskey bottle with him. And it’s not even good whiskey. It’s some bullshit blended cheapo brand.
While Atlanta’s defense played well early, this was still one of the worst units in the league last year. They were No. 27 out of 32 teams in points allowed. They’ll be showing up with pretty much the same unit this season. This wasn’t some dominant team last year. They went 11-5 in the regular season and were 6-4 at one point. Three of those wins were by six points or less, so the NFC Super Bowl team, with the ball bouncing a little different, could have gone 8-8 and missed the whole show.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
O/U wins: 8.0
My Prediction: 6-10
The Saints have drafted well, adding two new starters on the defense and a new starting left tackle in Ryan Ramczyk, but it ultimately won’t do any good. As fantastic as Drew Brees is, New Orleans is just currently outmanned in the NFC South and, really, in the entire NFC. It’s possible that Adrian Peterson might be able to make a difference on offense and even with trading Brandin Cooks away and losing Willie Snead to a suspension, the Saints are still solid at wide receiver.
It just won’t matter. New Orleans was No. 31 in points allowed last season on defense and No.2 in points scored on offense and it resulted in a 7-9 record. That’s probably the best they can hope for this year. It might be serious time to start thinking about a rebuild, New Orleans.
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