Do the Miami Dolphins (4-6) really want to stay in the playoff hunt? If so, they’ll have to do what will likely be nearly impossible, beat the New England Patriots (8-2) at Gillette Stadium with Matt Moore at quarterback.
If you want to point your eyes at this one and see if lightning strikes, tune your television, computer or mobile device to the CBS network at 1 p.m. EST.
The Game: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16)
O/U: 47.5
The History
The Patriots and Dolphins have played 103 games against each other since 1966. Miami leads the all time series 53-50.
New England swept Miami last season, winning 31-24 at Gillette Stadium and 35-14 at Hard Rock Stadium.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-6)
Oh yeah, you’re not mistaken. That’s going to be Matt Moore taking the field under center for the Miami Dolphins against a vastly improved Patriots defense. Moore has started one game and played in three this year. He’s completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 646 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. On its face, those aren’t terrible stats until you look at the game he actually started. It was a 40-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He was 25 of 44 for 176 yards, no touchdowns and tossed two of his three picks.
It’s kind of soured me on the dude. Now, two weeks ago in a 30-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and coming off the bench, Moore put up a 106.5 quarterback rating. He was 17 of 28 for 282 yards and a touchdown, again, trotting out of the bullpen. He’s had an extra week to prepare for New England. Will it make a difference? The sportsbooks don’t seem to think so.
Truthfully, even though at 4-6 the Dolphins are still in the playoff hunt, this is a lost season for them. Head coach Adam Gase is just in his second season with the team and, really, when you lose your starting quarterback in the preseason everybody expects a shitshow. The fact that Gase brought in Jay Cutler and calmed that down at all was the freaky part.
The best thing for Miami to do is just ride out this season, finish somewhere like 6-10 and work the draft and free agency hard. They aren’t that far away. Hell, they could have caught the Patriots or at least nipped at their heels with a healthy Ryan Tannehill this season. It’s time for the white flag.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2)
New England enters this game without the services of wide receiver Chris Hogan again, who is still out with a shoulder. Center David Andrews and back up offensive lineman Marcus Cannon are out too. Tight end Martellus Bennett is doubtful with his own shoulder issue and didn’t practice Thursday or Friday.
Here’s a fun fact for you. The Patriots haven’t given up more than 17 points on defense in their last six games. They still have, statistically, the worst defense in the league. That’s how bad New England started the season on D. Even with that vast improvement and six consecutive wins to boot, they still sit at No. 32.
Last week against the Raiders, Tom Brady looked like he was just tossing passes in practice. He was 30 of 37 for 340 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He was facing a team that many (including me) thought would be a Super Bowl contender in the preseason and barely broke a sweat.
Brandin Cooks caught six passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Danny Amendola had eight catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. If you look at the defensive stats, sure they gave up 344 yards, but all that amounted to was eight points. You have to do better to beat New England.
The Pick
If Gase was coming into this game at full strength with the team he planned on fielding in the off-season, he’d have a legitimate shot in this game. As it is, with the trades, the injuries and just the trajectory of the team, Miami isn’t in New England’s league. Unfortunately for them, they’re still in the same division. Patriots 38, Dolphins 16
This week
Straight up: 1-2
Against the spread: 1-2
Last week
Straight up: 5-8
Against the spread: 4-9
Season
Straight up: 92-67
Against the spread: 79-79
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