After a scintillating Monday Night Football contest where all sorts of records were broken, the league now shifts to Week 12 and the Thanksgiving Games. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the card and map out our NFL Week 12 parlay:
The Favorite
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Odds: Saints -13
This is simply irresistible at this point. You have to take the Saints, right? One of the simplest truths about betting is that when you have solid and convincing evidence that one team is likely to continue to flourish, don’t bet against that pattern or streak. Such is the case with New Orleans. The Saints are so unconscious right now that they have scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. In five of those seven games with at least 30 points, the Saints have scored at least 40 points. One of those games was against the Atlanta Falcons on the road.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 12 Odds
The Saints have scored at least 45 points in each of their last three games. They have won nine games in a row and have played nearly untouchable football ever since Week 3. They were bad in Weeks 1 and 2 but then got all of their problems sorted out. Drew Brees is playing at an MVP level. The Saints have arguably overtaken the Los Angeles Rams as the best team in the NFL. The Falcons, meanwhile, are below .500 and look nothing like the team which won the NFC two seasons ago. This isn’t the kind of betting pick to overthink or overcomplicate. Take New Orleans at home.
Pick: Saints -13
The Underdog
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Odds: Jaguars -3
The Bills are bad … but so are the Jaguars, and the key thing about the Jaguars is that after blowing a 16-0 second-half lead at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, there is a very good chance that they will mail it in for the rest of their season, possibly tanking to get a higher draft pick. The Jaguars’ game against the Steelers was viewed by many as the team’s last stand in 2018, the last attempt to try to make a run at the playoffs. That aspiration is pretty much dead right now. The Jaguars are now a team to watch in terms of being a candidate to drift through the remainder of their season. A lot of off-field distractions have ravaged the locker room and team morale. That could now take a tumble on the road in cold weather for a team which plays home games in Florida.
Pick: Bills +3
The Total
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Odds: 41
The Redskins will play this game with Colt McCoy, the backup who will replace Alex Smith, who suffered a Joe Theismann-level injury against the Houston Texans this past Sunday. The Redskins know their defense has to play great to have any chance of winning this game. Dallas’ offense did not impress last week in Atlanta, scoring only 22 points against a Falcon defense which got badly exposed by other NFL teams. Washington’s need to play well on defense, combined with the limitations of McCoy, point to a 17-14 kind of game. Take the under.
Pick: Under 41
The Point Spread
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Odds: Panthers -3
The Panthers are 5-0 at home this season. They struggle on the road but figure out how to win at home. That’s the big reason to pick Carolina. Also, the Seahawks’ only road wins this season are against a 4-6 Detroit team and an abysmal Arizona team which just lost at home to the Oakland Raiders. This is also a game in which a West Coast team is playing an early time-slot game (1 p.m. Eastern) in a state which is bordered on one side by the Atlantic Ocean. That is always hard to overcome for Western teams. Take the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers -3
