The NFL calendar has flipped to December, which means more games are framed less in terms of playoff positioning and more in terms of outright playoff survival. Teams will be desperate, but desperation isn’t the only thing a team can count on – it has to be able to perform well, no matter how urgent the moment might be. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our NFL Week 13 parlay.
The Favorite
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
Odds: Saints -7
The Saints were actually slowed down a little by the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night. They had averaged 48 points per game in their previous three outings and had scored at least 45 points in all three of those games. Against Atlanta, they scored “only” 31 points and were not able to finish drives as often as they normally do. Receivers dropped passes deep in Atlanta territory. Yet, they still won by 14 points and allowed just 17 to the Falcons. The Saints have been carried mostly by their offense, but their defense is playing well, too. The Saints – in their three-game offensive surge in which they averaged 48 points scored per contest – allowed under 19 points per game on defense. They followed that with the 17-points-allowed effort against the Falcons.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | NFL Parlay Betting
When you have an offense which, even on one of its worst nights, scores 31 points, combined with a defense which is allowing scores in the high teens on average, that’s a juggernaut. It doesn’t matter too much which teams the Saints play. This is the team to be trusted more than any other in the NFL. The fact that it is playing in a domed stadium on turf against Dallas should only help Drew Brees and the rest of his offense continue to function at a very high level.
Pick: Saints -7
The Underdog
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Odds: Ravens -2.5
The Ravens did beat the Oakland Raiders with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. They are 2-0 with Jackson under center and have not fallen apart without Joe Flacco at quarterback. Nevertheless, Jackson is a rookie, and if he does play this coming week, this will be his first NFL road game. He will be going up against a Falcons’ defense which has played reasonably well in recent weeks. Holding the New Orleans Saints, as shown above, to 31 points is actually a good performance. A week earlier, the Falcons held the Dallas Cowboys to just 22 points. The defense is not doing a bad job. The Falcons know they have to make a run to have any remote chance of making the playoffs. The Ravens are not that much better than the Falcons, and Jackson possibly playing a first NFL road game is something which should not inspire confidence. Take Atlanta.
Pick: Falcons +2.5
The Total
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
Odds: 42.5
The Bengals will not be playing with Andy Dalton in this game. He is out with an injury. Even though the Broncos have not been very good on the road this season, they will be going up against a bad quarterback. Jeff Driskel replaced Dalton in mop-up duty this past Sunday in a blowout loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals signed Tom Savage off waivers after the Dalton injury. Savage had a short and memorably futile tenure as the Houston Texans’ quarterback. Denver just defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers with strong defensive efforts. Von Miller and the rest of an improving defense do not figure to slow down against Cincinnati’s backup quarterbacks. Points should be in very short supply.
Pick: Under 42.5
The Point Spread
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Odds: Texans -4.5
The Browns played one of their best games of the season – and snapped a 25-game streak without a road win – in Cincinnati this past weekend. Baker Mayfield was very sharp, and the defense smothered the Bengals from the start. It has to be noted that the Browns have played well ever since the firing of Hue Jackson. That doesn’t seem like an idle coincidence. Even if they lose in Houston, they probably won’t lose by much. They can keep this game very close against a Houston team, which has played games decided by fewer than four points all season long.
Pick: Browns +4.5
