Man, oh man, the kid bounced back in a big way with his Week 15 NFL picks. I was a dropped Jesse James touchdown pass (yes, it was dropped) and a missed Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal away from a 16-0 straight up week and a 14-2 week against the spread.
But such feats are rarely possible and I can’t complain. With the final two weeks of the NFL season on the horizon, this is about as good as it can get for a week’s worth of picks.
Here’s how it went down.
This Week
Straight up: 14-2
Against the spread: 12-4
Last week
Straight up: 8-8
Against the spread: 6-10
Season
Straight up: 139-85
Against the spread: 119-105
I have three picks I really loved this week. The first was sticking with the Carolina Panthers over the Green Bay Packers, even though Aaron Rodgers was coming back. I’ve seen this play out so many times with Hall of Fame-level QBs. They roll in from a lengthy injury and everyone just assumes, because they’re Aaron Rodgers (or Kurt Warner or whoever), that they can pick up right where they left off. They almost never do.
https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/942481056065875968
My other two beloved picks were the Philadelphia Eagles winning but not covering against the New York Giants and the New Orleans Saints doing the same against the New York Jets. Nick Foles was fantastic, but this is the time of year, especially with Eli Manning back at the helm, where the Giants can prove they’ve got a little heart left. For the Jets, all they’ve had this season is heart. Sean Payton and Drew Brees couldn’t care less about the spread. All they want to do is win and stay healthy for the playoffs. That made that -15.5 spread too hot to handle.
Lastly, my faith in Mike Mularkey being absolute trash continues to pay off so I’d be remiss not to celebrate picking the San Francisco 49ers to win over the Tennessee Titans.
My worst picks? I only lost two games straight up so I can’t be too tough on myself this week. As much as anyone wants to blame the ref’s replay call on a ball that would have been called incomplete every time on every field in the NFL, it was the next play that cost Pittsburgh the game against New England. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tried to fool the Patriots with a fake spike that just got served up for an easy pick. With plenty of time on the clock, the Steelers had the tying field goal in the bag. All they had to do was protect the ball. That loss is on Roethlisberger and no one else.
Was it a Catch? 👀#NFLStats https://t.co/HnISPlPQgH
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) December 18, 2017
The other loss I’ll actually take credit for since it meant I actually picked a team quarterbacked by Blaine Gabbert to beat a half-way decent team on the road. The Washington Redskins are just playing out the schedule at this point and should probably fire Jay Gruden at the end of the season. None of that mattered with Gabbert coming to town running the Arizona Cardinals’ show.
The best pick week in the pundit-sphere was a six-way tie between ESPN’s K.C. Joyner, MMQB’s Peter King, SBNation’s Geoff Schwartz, The Athletic’s Chris Burke and the Dallas Morning News’ Kevin Sherrington and David Moore who all went 15-1. The worst weeks belonged to CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, The Sporting News‘ David Steele and Dallas Morning News’ Brandon George who all went 9-7.
For the season, I’m still stuck in the middle of the pack, tied with Peter King and three other guys.
Just another NFL Sunday…
*Refs use paper to measure first down.
*Jerry Richardson announces the Panthers are for sale.
*Seattle surrenders 42 points at home.
*Jaguars clinch playoff spot.
*Aaron Rodgers throws 3 picks.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 18, 2017
Who won the week against the spread? By God, I did. Nobody picked them better than me this week. My 12-4 is the best in the country. The Boston Globe’s Ben Volin finished right behind me at 13-3. The worst week belonged to CBS’ Dave Richard who finished 5-10 and didn’t even pick every game.
For the year, I am now tied for No. 3 overall with MMQB’s Tom Mantzouranis. I’m two games behind MMQB’s Albert Breer and four behind current leader Frank Schwab from Yahoo Sports.
NFL WEEK 16 EARLY LINES
Saturday Late
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5), O/U: 41.0
Saturday Night
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (N/A), O/U: N/A
Sunday Early
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10), O/U: 46.5
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5), O/U: 38.0
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5), O/U: 43.0
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10), O/U: 44.0
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-12.5), O/U: 47.0
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5.5), O/U: 53.5
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets (+6.5), O/U: 42.5
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+6.5), O/U: 48.5
Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (-3.5), O/U: 41.0
Sunday Late
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5), O/U: 42.5
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (-4), O/U: 40.0
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5), O/U: 47.0
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (+9), O/U: 44.0
Monday Night
Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9), O/U: 47.0
Once again, the Saturday night game has some real playoff implications. As I type this, news just came across the wire that the Packers have given up on their season and placed Aaron Rodgers back on injured reserve. Needless to say, the prospect of that is what kept that line from being posted. It’ll probably be something like -9 now.
McCarthy on placing Aaron Rodgers on IR: It's what we felt was best for Aaron. He was sore, took a number of hits. We felt this was the best decision.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 19, 2017
The Browns will have one last chance to keep from going 0-16 when they play at Chicago Sunday. They open as a -6.5 underdog. I’m not sure how many people will take them, but it’ll be enough to probably drop that line to -4 before gametime. The problem for Cleveland here is, the they face the Steelers in the final week of the season and Pittsburgh will still be playing for possible home field advantage there. They won’t take their foot off the gas. It’s a kitchen-sink game for the Browns, but they may not have a working bathroom in the house.
The two Sunday games with the most playoff implications are your Saints vs Falcons match up and the Seahawks vs Cowboys tilt. That Saints and Falcons game might just decide the NFC South. If one of the NFC South teams stumbles, the Seahawks or Cowboys will likely be the beneficiary. They’ll have to win this game for it even to matter. If the Rams lose to the Titans earlier, Seattle will still be alive for a possible NFC West title.
https://twitter.com/AndyCarlsonShow/status/943226196472549377
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