Our Sunday picks begin with the suddenly relevant (and AFC East leading) Buffalo Bills (3-1) traveling to the hellscapes of Ohio to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) at Paul Brown Stadium.
The contest will be broadcast for your viewing pleasure on your local CBS station at 1 p.m. EST.
The Game: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
O/U: 39.5
The History
The Bills and Bengals have played exactly 30 games, beginning in 1968. Buffalo leads the all time series 16-14.
This is the third consecutive year the two teams have faced off. In 2015, the Bengals beat Buffalo 27-24 in overtime. Last season the Bills won 16-12 on November, 20.
BUFFALO BILLS (3-1)
If you looked at this Bills roster and expected them to be leading their division and sitting at 3-1 after the first month of the season, you are a witch and must stopped before your evil can take hold in the world and open a portal to “the other,” where Regonock, the Earless One, will step hoof onto this plain and devour the spleens of those that were promised. And, you know, nobody wants that. At least not until after the final season of Game of Thrones wraps up.
Buffalo pulled off its second legit upset last week, knocking off the defending NFC Champions and Super Bowl choking Atlanta Falcons 23-17. Tyrod Taylor was spectacular, but he protected the ball and let LeSean McCoy do most of the work. Jordan Matthews showed up on the stat sheet, catching a touchdown. The bad news is, Matthews hasn’t practiced all week and may not play Sunday.
The game was won by solid defense. The Bills managed just one sack and four tackles for a loss, but they held Atlanta to just 5-of-13 on third down conversions and only gave up two touchdowns. Tre’Davious White’s fumble return for a touchdown was the difference in the game.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-3)
Thanks to a visit to Cleveland, the Bengals are no longer winless. Since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator, Cincinnati has consistently found the end zone after being held out of it for the first two games of the season. Last week Andy Dalton was nearly flawless, completeing 15 of 30 passes for 286 yards and four touchdowns.
He didn’t do it by focusing on A.J. Green, which was pretty much all he was trying in the first couple of weeks. Instead, he spread the ball around to nine different receivers and it was tight end Tyler Kroft who led the team in receiving, catching six passes for 68 yards and two touchdowns. If Kroft can deliver this every week with Tyler Eifert out, he’ll be a nice, cheap pick up on your daily fantasy team.
Cincy managed just two sacks and five tackles for a loss against the Browns, which should be worrying. Cleveland has a great offensive line, but DeShone Kizer is a block of granite back in the pocket with the release of a snail on Xanax.
While the passing game has opened up, the running game stalled against the Browns. The Bengals managed just 86 total yards on the ground and Dalton, with four carries for 29 yards, was the leading rusher. Joe Mixon got the majority of the carries out of the backfield, but just gained 29 yards himself. They’ll need a lot more than that against the Bills.
There are no unexpected injuries this week. Eifert is still out, of course. So is John Ross and safety Derron Smith hasn’t practiced as of Thursday.
The Pick
Here’s what I’m dealing with. This Buffalo team is significantly better than I expected them to be, but I don’t think they’re “4-1” better. They’ve pulled off two significant upsets the last couple of weeks, one at home and the other on the road. I can’t see them winning three in a row. They’ve used up all their luck. Lazor is calling good plays for the Cincy offense and I think they knock Buffalo back to reality Sunday. Bengals 24, Bills 20
This week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the spread: 1-0
Last week
Straight up: 9-7
Against the spread: 10-6
Season
Straight up: 37-26
Against the spread: 32-31
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