It’s time for our usual Tuesday afternoon thing as we look back at how I did with my NFL Week Four picks and take a gander at the week ahead.
This week
Straight up: 9-7
Against the spread: 10-6
Season
Straight up: 37-26
Against the spread: 32-31
It was a solid, bounce back week. Of the picks I’d like to have back, the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys hurts. Not because I thought the Cowboys would cover, I didn’t. But because I didn’t see the Rams winning outright. When I woke up Sunday morning, I kind of kicked myself over this one.
It’s also important to note that I have been incredibly off on both of my London picks this season. Like, not even in the zip code. As always, I blame the U.K. itself. My worst loss is probably the week’s worst loss, with the Buffalo Bills upsetting the Atlanta Falcons at home. Just when I’m ready to bury my Super Bowl hangover theory it rises up like Jason Vorhees outside a Brazzer’s film set.
My best pick? That one’s easy. I might have been the only picker in America that saw the Carolina Panthers strolling into Foxborough and upsetting the New England Patriots. I’ll be high five-ing myself for that one all week.
How did I do against my peers in the picking community? This week’s trophy goes to Louis Riddick from ESPN who finished 13-3, only missing the Falcons, Patriots and Chargers. The loser of the week is Geoff Schwartz from SB Nation who finished 5-11.
For the season I’m in the top third of 111 pundits, tied with Adam Meyer from Fox Sports, Patrick Allen from Fansided, Seth Wickersham from ESPN and Pete Prisco from CBS Sports.
Against the spread, I finished tied for fourth in the nation this week. Only John Breech from CBS and New Scruggs and Dana Larson from the Dallas Morning news bested me. All finished 11-5.
My season ranking is up near the top too. I’m currently tied at No. 17 in the country with Josh Katzowitz from Pickwatch.
NFL WEEK FIVE EARLY LINES
Thursday Night
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5), O/U: 55.5
Sunday
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3), O/U: 38.5
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-1), O/U: 39.0
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3), O/U: 44.0
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5), O/U: 43.5
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (N/A), O/U: N/A
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5), O/U: 44.5
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5), O/U: 45.0
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5), O/U: 43.5
Sunday Late
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5), O/U: 47.0
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-2.5), O/U: 40.0
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2), O/U: 52.5
Sunday Night
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1), O/U: 47.0
Monday Night
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (N/A), O/U: N/A
Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, Washington Redskins
No lines on two of these yet, but that will change before I start making my picks Wednesday. The Vikings, again, are stuck with the “N/A” until Sam Bradford’s status for Monday night is finalized. We already know who will be starting for the Chicago Bears, one Mitchell Trubisky. This game is going to be intriguing by the time it kicks off Monday night.
Our other “N/A” game is also because of a quarterback status. Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans suffered a hamstring injury against the Houston Texans on Sunday. Once his status is resolved, this line will probably favor Tennessee by at least 2.5.
There are three of these games that look particularly interesting to me. First, Thursday’s contest between the Bucs and Patriots is downright fascinating to quote Mr. Spock. New England hasn’t stopped an offense all season and now they’r supposed to slow down Mike Evans and Doug Martin coming off suspension? Hmmm.
The Steelers broke out this week against the Ravens, but that -8.5 against the Jaguars will need the stink eye put to it before any pick is made. The Chiefs at the Texans, in their third prime time game of the season, is also intriguing. As good as Kansas City is, you know they aren’t going undefeated. After the September they had, this is just the kind of game they could drop.
NFL WEEK FOUR INJURIES
We had some downright season changing injuries happen Sunday, with none bigger than Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr going down after getting kneed in the back on a tackle Sunday afternoon. At first the team thought Carr just suffered back spasms, but Monday morning an MRI revealed he had a transverse process fracture in his back. The Raiders expect Carr to miss at least two weeks. Starting for Carr will be back up E.J. Manuel with Connor Cook as the No. 2 quarterback for Oakland.
In 2014, #Cowboys QB Tony Romo suffered the transverse process fracture. He missed one game. #Raiders hope it’s the same for Derek Carr.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 2, 2017
Minnesota Vikings rookie running back Dalvin Cook was lost for the season after tearing his ACL. Cook was off to a fantastic start as a rookie and had even run for a 10 yard gain before grabbing his knee in pain against the Detroit Lions. The Vikings signed Latavius Murray in the off-season and now the job appears to be his for the year.
Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman will miss at least two weeks after suffering broken ribs after getting fallen on by a teammate during a tackle Monday Night against the Kansas City Chiefs. Norman was subbed in Monday night’s game by Quinton Dunbar.
Josh Norman expected out a few weeks with a rib injury, Jay Gruden told Lisa Salters.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 3, 2017
Norman wasn’t the only player to suffer some broken ribs last week. In Thursday’s game, Green Bay Packers running back Ty Montgomery had his cracked in the first quarter. His back up, rookie Jamaal Williams, was knocked out of the game too, but should play Sunday. The Packers aren’t yet ruling out Montgomery for Sunday’s game, but I doubt he’ll play.
Cook wasn’t the only rookie running back lost Sunday. Chris Carson of the Seattle Seahawks broke his lower leg after getting it caught in an awkward tackle Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts. He’ll likely miss the rest of the season. Thomas Rawls was a healthy scratch Sunday and Eddie Lacy was Carson’s back up, so they’ll likely be battling it out for the starting job the rest of the way.
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