Of all the weeks to start 0-1 in my NFL straight up picks (still 1-0 against the spread), this one makes me pretty damn happy. With the New England Patriots shitting the bed on Thursday Night Football, the stage could be set for a serious Pittsburgh Steelers run here in their final season with all their offensive pieces in place. Can the Cleveland Browns stop them? Come on.
The Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9.5)
The History
The Steelers hold an emphatic lead in the all-time series, 72-58 with no ties. That’s rare for the teams that have been around a while.
Pittsburgh has won the last four consecutive games and only two have been close. In the 2016 season finale, the Steelers needed overtime to down the suddenly hot Browns 27-24.
Cleveland’s last win in the series came in October, 2014 in a 31-10 beatdown of the Steelers. It might surprise you to learn it wasn’t a Landry Jones or Michael Vick game, but an all hands on deck Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown appearance that just ended in disaster. Cleveland’s QB? Brian Hoyer. See what I’m saying about that guy?
The Browns dominated this rivalry at its inception, posting their longest win streak of the series and winning eight consecutive games and 16 of their first 18 match ups.
The first back-to-back Pittsburgh wins over the Browns came in November, 1963 and October, 1964. They wouldn’t win two straight over Cleveland again until December, 1972 and September, 1973.
In spite of the Steel Curtain era success, the longest win streak over Cleveland belongs to the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers. From November, 2003 to October, 2009 Pittsburgh won 12 straight games over the Browns.
In fact, the recent history is a reverse of the early history. The Steelers have won 30 of the two teams’ last 34 games.
The last time the Browns won back-to-back games over Pittsburgh was November, 1999 and September, 2000. Both were close games, 16-15 and 23-20.
The two teams have met twice in the playoffs, in 1995 and 2003, with the Steelers winning both games. The first was a cruise, 29-9. The second, in 2003, was a nailbiter with Pittsburgh winning 36-33.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Last season the Steelers were the No. 10 ranked offense and the No. 10 ranked defense in the league and pretty much everybody is back on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh should have a burr under its saddle this season to win a championship as it’s doubtful Le’Veon Bell returns to the team next year and Ben Roethlisberger continually hints at retirement. Bell would be a huge loss, but one the team could withstand. Roethlisberger is the franchise and heading for the NFL Hall of Fame. If he steps down, the Steelers will be in real trouble.
But that’s the future and the season is now. There’s no reason to expect any less production out of this offense as long as everyone stays healthy. The only change up is James Conner replacing DeAngelo Williams as Bell’s back up and the addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster to the wide receiver corps. He should be an upgrade over Sammie Coates anyway.
Pittsburgh continues to get younger on defense while keeping their old stalwarts on the team. Rookie T.J. Watt should pay immediate dividends as a pass rusher and when he’s out, there’s no rest for the Browns as their old nemesis James Harrison returns to the field. The only thing keeping Ryan Shazier out of the conversation of the league’s best middle linebackers is his inability to stay on the field. He knows it and has worked hard on his conditioning to play a full season.
As good as the top two levels of Pittsburgh’s defense is, this should be the best defensive backfield they’ve had since Troy Polamalu was on the roster. Joe Haden and Artie Burns should be an elite corner duo, with Sean Davis and free agent acquisition Mike Mitchell from the Panthers at the two safety spots.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Rookie Myles Garrett is out with a sprained ankle. They cut their starting safety, Calvin Pryor, for getting into a fight BEFORE practice and they’re starting DeShone Kizer at quarterback. It’s not looking good for Cleveland.
All that said, this is a better Browns team that took the field last year and won just one game at every level except quarterback. And that’s not a knock on Kizer. He’s a rookie and still has plenty to learn at the position. Lucky for him he’ll have a much better offensive line to learn behind than Cody Kessler and Robert Griffin III did last year.
While the Steelers could do without Sammie Coates, he immediately becomes the third best receiver on Cleveland’s team. They’ve upgraded this whole unit, but really need a standout season from last year’s first round pick Corey Coleman.
While Myles Garrett is out of the defensive lineup, rookie safety Jabrill Peppers isn’t and he should be a dynamic playmaker not only in the defensive backfield, but also on special teams. He’s a danger to take it to the paint every time he touches the ball. Signing free agent Jason McCourty at corner mitigates the loss of Haden somewhat, but this is a corner and safety group with two elite players and two guys that just look like bodies.
Jamie Collins is probably the best player on the defense, but Christian Kirksey would likely be a star on any other team. He had 143 tackles, 2.5 sacks and three passes defended last season.
The Pick
There’s little question that the Steelers are going to win. The only issue is if the +9.5 line holds up. I don’t see any way Kizer doesn’t get sacked 10 times in this game and throw two or more interceptions. That’s a recipe for disaster playing anyone, but when you give Pittsburgh the short field, they’ll make you pay in slot machine totals. Big lines are always scary, especially this early in the season, but the Steelers should be ashamed if they can’t cover this one against a rookie quarterback, no Myles Garrett and a completely overmatched Cleveland squad. Steelers 48, Browns 16
This week
Straight up: 0-1
Against the spread: 1-0
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