It’s Tuesday afternoon and from here on out we’ll be wrapping up the weekend’s NFL action and overreaction. We’ve had a couple of nights to think about what happened Sunday and while we were all up until the wee hours of the morning finishing up the Chargers and Broncos game, I, for one, slept in as writers can often do. So I’m fresh as a daisy.
First, let’s start with what’s really important here….
HOW DID I DO WITH MY PICKS?
Straight up: 10-5
Against the spread: 8-7
It’s not a bad start, especially with a handful of truly nutty results this week. I defy anyone to have expected the Pittsburgh Steelers not to cover against the Cleveland Browns starting a rookie quarterback and without Myles Garrett.
If you picked the Jacksonville Jaguars to blow out the Houston Texans, you and I need to head to Vegas today.
How did I stack up against my peers? Pretty damn well. I’m tied at No. 16 out of 114 “experts,” computers and algorithms. The best record came from Fansided’s Jack Jorgenson who ruled it with a 13-2 straight up week. His two losses were the Patriots and Texans, so that’s a solid bit of picking right there.
In fact, only three “experts” picked the Chiefs to win last Thursday and before you track these guys down to deliver your celebratory high five, the highest finisher was Geoff Schwarts from SBNation who went 9-6. Josh Hill at Fansided was 8-7 and Jonathan Jones from MMQB was 7-8.
Who did the worst? Bleacher Report’s Chris Simms and Newsday’s Joe Manniello both went 4-11, which is a feat. If you just picked the home teams, you went 7-8.
Against the spread I’m tied for 11th. Considering I finished last season tied for 12th in the nation, I’ll take the one spot jump as a positive outcome. The best job against the spread for the week went to Case Keefer of the Las Vegas Sun and Gary Gramling of MMQB who each went 11-4. The worst were Jason La Canfora from CBS and New Scruggs from the Dallas Morning News who both went 4-11.
EARLY WEEK TWO LINES
Thursday
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-5)
Sunday
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (+6.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (-14)
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
Sunday Night
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Monday Night
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4)
That is a lot of big numbers there. Eight games have a 6.5 points or better spread and two are double digits. Only four games out of 16 have road teams favored. This is a pretty drastic reset after last week as the oddsmakers scramble to figure out the league.
To me, the most surprising line up there is the Steelers at -6.5. Minnesota played lights out in the early Monday night game and Pittsburgh put up some offensive numbers, but didn’t look great overall against the lowly Browns. And it’s not like the money guys think Cleveland is suddenly worth a shit. They’re 7.5 dogs to the Ravens. I’m going to have to ponder that one for a while.
KEY INJURIES
We had some significant guys go down in Week One, with likely the top pick in your fantasy draft being sidelined for most, if not all the season.
Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson dislocated his wrist in Sunday’s loss to the Detroit Lions and will require surgery. The timetable to return is two to three months and, if you’re even at a grade school level in math, you know that’s a December return at best and a season lost at worst. I would say he could be ready for the playoffs, but I’m fairly confident that the Cardinals won’t even sniff a postseason run. Especially without Johnson.
ESPN literally has the scariest sports headline you’ll read today on their front page, “Cardinals’ playoff hopes now hinge on Carson Palmer.” I mean, Jesus.
With T.J. Logan out with the same injury, any hopes of a Kareem Hunt style breakout is gone. Kerwynn Williams moves up as the likely starter for Arizona with Andre Ellington as his back up. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals re-signed Chris Johnson too. Williams got five carries for 10 yards in Sunday’s game and scored a touchdown. He caught one pass for two yards.
Williams was a star at Utah State, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and gaining 1,512 yards and scoring five touchdowns in 2013. He was a seventh round pick by the Indianapolis Colts that same year and has been with the Cardinals since 2014.
Kansas City Chiefs safety Eric Berry was almost single-handedly shutting down Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski when he popped his Achilles last Thursday night. He’ll be out for the season too. Luckily for Kansas City, they’re loaded at safety. And while none of these guys are Berry, Ron Parker and Daniel Sorenson should still be solid defenders in the defensive backfield.
Lost in the celebration of the unexpected Jacksonville Jaguars dominating win over the Houston Texans on the road, no less, is the loss of No. 1 wide receiver Allen Robinson for the season with a torn ACL.
The good news for the Jaguars is they’re pretty deep at wideout. Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns should be fine as starters on the outside for Blake Bortles to work with. Arrelious Benn and rookie Keelan Cole will need to develop into slot receivers. Hurns caught three passes for 42 yards Sunday. Benn caught one and Lee was held without a catch.
The Philadelphia Eagles lost the cornerback they just traded for when Ronald Darby dislocated his right ankle in their victory over the Washington Redskins Sunday. According to early reports, there is not ligament or tendon damage and he should miss four to six weeks.
With Darby going down, the Eagles will use either rookie Rasul Douglas or Patrick Robinson at corner. Douglas was a third round pick from April’s NFL Draft out of West Virginia. He had 70 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, one sack, eight passes defended, one forced fumble and eight interceptions with one touchdown for the Mountaineers.
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