Our final Wild Card playoff game of the weekend will be played in the Big Easy as the NFC South Champion New Orleans Saints (11-5) welcome the 2015 NFC Champion Carolina Panthers (11-5) to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Sunday afternoon.
The game will be brought to you by the fine people at FOX and their nationwide network of affiliates at 4:40 p.m. EST.
The Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
O/U: 48.5
The History
The Saints and Panthers have faced off 46 times since 1995 with Carolina holding a 24-22 advantage in the all-time series.
New Orleans has won three of the last four meetings between the two teams and swept the series this year, 34-13 at Bank of America Stadium on Sept. 24, 2017 and 31-21 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Dec. 3, 2017.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (11-5)
The Panthers spent the whole second half of the season as the best team no one was talking about. They open the playoffs that same way thanks to what should have been an embarrassing 22-10 loss to the Atlanta Falcons with a shot at a division title on the line. Quarterback Cam Newton had one of his worst games of the season, going 14-for-34 for 180 yards, one touchdown and three picks. He added 11 carries for 59 yards on the ground. Any of that kind of nonsense against the Saints and the Panthers can keep the bus warmed up in the parking lot.
We fight as one. #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/fUjhCjzf0a
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) January 5, 2018
Head coach Ron Rivera has stated this week that it’s unfair to put all the Panthers’ playoff hopes on Cam Newton, but let’s look at the evidence. He passed for 3,302 yards, 22 touchdowns with 16 interceptions and leads the team in rushing with 754 yards and a team co-leading six rushing touchdowns. If the game isn’t on Newton, who the hell is it on?
Pretty much everything the Panthers did this off-season to lessen the burden on Newton’s shoulders didn’t work. They drafted Christian McCaffrey in the first round to bolster the running game and add another threat to the passing game. He’s been fine, but not the dominant player contending for rookie of the year many (including me) thought he’d be in the preseason. He’s third on the team in rushing (435 yards) behind Newton and the guy he was brought in to replace, Jonathan Stewart (680 yards). McCaffrey has become more involved in the passing game, leading the team with 80 receptions for 651 yards and five touchdowns.
Stat Leaders from this regular season
🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/SbZaVXOoss
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) January 4, 2018
Last week against the Falcons, the Panthers didn’t manage much on offense at all. No running back amassed more than 16 yards on the ground and Devin Funchess led the receivers with 48 yards and a touchdown with just two catches on six targets. Maybe they wish they hadn’t gotten rid of Kelvin Benjamin now? Considering a passing game helps a lot in the playoffs.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-5)
Regardless of being favored in this game, the Saints have seen fit to lower everyone’s playoff expectations heading into the tournament. In the grand scheme of things, that might be a good strategy, but I really don’t feel they’ve done it on purpose.
Now on display: jerseys of @saints RBs @MarkIngram22 & @alvinkamara from Week 16 when they became 1st RB tandem since 1985 to both have 1,400 scrimmage YDS in same season. Week 17, became 1st RB duo in @NFL history to each record at least 1,500 scrimmage YDS in same season. pic.twitter.com/RD0CsKT3s1
— Pro Football Hall of Fame (@ProFootballHOF) January 5, 2018
New Orleans has lost three of their last six games and two of them were to teams that are in the NFC Playoffs, the Falcons and Rams. Those losses, at least, make sense and in the case of Atlanta, the Saints got their revenge two weeks ago, beating the Falcons 23-13. Nope, it’s the 31-24 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the final day of the season that should hang around this team’s neck like an albatross.
The Bucs did a better job than most of shutting down the Saints’ run game last week, holding them to just 92 total yards. New Orleans was still able to pile up the passing yards, with Drew Brees completing 22-of-30 for 245 yards and a touchdown, but it was the defense that surrendered the game with 18 points in the final quarter. That’s not how you want to enter your playoff bracket.
While everybody thought McCaffrey was a shoo-in for offensive rookie of the year, the Saints’ Alvin Kamara actually has a shot at it. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry on his way to 728 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. He added 81 receptions for 826 yards and five touchdowns. He’ll have to beat out Kareem Hunt of the Kansas City Chiefs for the belt, but it’s close.
The votes are in…@Saints RB Alvin Kamara is your Offensive Rookie of the Year, as voted on by the NFL on FOX fans. pic.twitter.com/pIPLVvcYPh
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 5, 2018
The Panthers bring a solid match up in the trenches to slow down the running game, but head coach Sean Payton has no trouble working in passes and screens to loosen that up. Brees has two downfield targets in Michael Thomas (104 catches, 1,245 yards, five touchdowns) and former Panther Tedd Ginn Jr. (53 catches, 787 yards, four touchdowns) and he’s not afraid to use them.
Fun Facts
Though the Panthers have been in the league since 1995 and shared a division with New Orleans the entire time, they’ve never met in the playoffs before Sunday.
The two teams have just one overtime contest in their two decade-long rivalry, a 23-20 Saints win on Oct. 26, 2003. In that game former Saints back up quarterback Jake Delhomme fell to the Aaron Brooks in a contest where both quarterbacks played like shit. Delhomme was 12-of-27 for 148 yards, no touchdowns and no picks. Brooks was 20-of-33 for 187 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Panthers running back Stephen Davis had 31 carries for 178 yards and two scores. The Saints got 101 yards and 26 carries from Deuce McAllister.
The Pick
There’s an old football axiom that it’s hard to beat a good team three times. It seems stupid now that I write it out. I mean, it’s hard to beat a good team one time, isn’t it? It’s because they’re good. Regardless, both these squads slide into this spot on a loss they have to feel pretty bad about. Carolina blew a chance to steal the NFC South and have this game happen on their home field. The Saints failed at just securing this game regardless and coming into the playoffs hot. Neither of the previous contests between these two were particularly close at the end, so that six points is probably justified. Still, it’s the playoffs. I think it’ll be tighter than that. Saints 27, Panthers 24
Last week
Straight up: 8-8
Against the spread: 2-14
Season
Straight up: 157-99
Against the spread: 126-130
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