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NFL’s Top 4 Offenses

The NFL season is The NFL season is almost in the back end of the journey, but not quite. Some teams might still be struggling to establish an identity, but a few teams have noticeably good offenses, ones which can be elevated above the rest. Points are the measure of an offense, but it’s not as simple as ranking one through four strictly based on points. Explanations will be included.

Atlanta Falcons

This is the case in which points and overall ranking do match. The Falcons are the one team in the NFL which averages more than 30 points scored per game. Matt Ryan has received better protection from his offensive line, which had been a definite weakness in previous seasons. Getting more dependable pass blocking has made a world of difference for Ryan, who has been able to re-establish a great rapport with one of the top four receivers in pro football, Julio Jones. In recent seasons, Jones has been injured a lot, which cut into the productivity of the Falcons’ offense almost as much as the porous offensive line. Now that a lot of pieces are healthier, the Falcons are extremely difficult to defend. Coordinator Kyle Shanahan is also devising plays which are putting Ryan, Jones and the rest in position to succeed. This is the best offense in the NFL at the moment. A problem is that the Atlanta defense hasn’t been able to hold up its end of the bargain, but that’s a different story.

Dallas Cowboys

This is where a strict adherence to points scored can’t be used as a direct measurement of how good an offense is. Several teams are ahead of the Cowboys in terms of points scored, but they should not be viewed as good offenses. Indianapolis, Carolina and New Orleans have all scored more points per game than Dallas has, but first of all, those three teams have losing records. Second, those teams have – as a result of having losing records – trailed a lot in games. Therefore, they score a lot of points when they’re behind, sometimes two or three scores behind. The stats look great and the numbers look fat, but in terms of scoring when an offense has to score, the end result isn’t very impressive at all. Offenses that usually fall just short in come-from-behind efforts aren’t really getting the job done. Offenses that score 35 points and take leads, only for defenses to blow those leads, are a lot more worthy of respect than what Carolina, New Orleans, and Indy have done.

Dallas is an example of a relatively high scoring offense (in the upper half of the 20s) which does important things when a situation calls for them. That’s why the Cowboys should be second.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have something of a feast or famine quality. They are explosive, with quarterback Derek Carr throwing to a group of fast wide receivers, but they are somewhat more erratic than Atlanta and Dallas. They also don’t play all that well at home. As soon as the Raiders develop more consistency, they can potentially move up on this list. Another note to make is that Oakland hasn’t yet played the Denver Broncos’ Super Bowl-winning defense. The Raiders need to play well against Denver to affirm that they belong here for sure. Right now, they’re here because a lot of other teams don’t quite deserve the honor.

New England Patriots

The Patriots are 10th in the league in scoring, whereas Oakland is eighth and Dallas is seventh. How can the Pats have the fourth-best offense? Part of the answer is the reasons given above in the Dallas section. When a team such as Carolina has only one win, its points aren’t valuable points. The other reason is that Philadelphia, which is ninth in points scored, has a rookie quarterback, Carson Wentz. Would anyone seriously claim that Wentz is a better or more trustworthy quarterback than Tom Brady? Would anyone say that against quality opposition or in difficult weather conditions, the Eagles would enjoy better odds than the Patriots of scoring? This is where common sense has to be used and an allowance for both talent and experience needs to be made.

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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