The NHL fantasy mock drafts are starting and now we are beginning to get an idea of where each player is getting drafted on average. Some players are going right where they should, such as Connor McDavid going first overall and Brett Burns being the top defenseman taken. Other players are getting picked too early. These are good players, but either due to their name or from their performance last season they are overvalued and drafted too early. Here are five of the most overvalued players in fantasy this season.
Jack Eichel – ADP 11th Overall
Coming into the 2017-18, Jack Eichel is predicted to take be taken somewhere around the end of the first or early second in most fantasy leagues. In two seasons in the NHL thus far, Eichel has not been a stellar fantasy player. Last season, Eichel missed 21 games which caused him to finish outside the top-50 players and in some league he finished closer to a 90-100 range player. The Sabres still lack in proven talent, which may hinder Eichel’s ability to pick up assists and transcend to the realms of top-10 fantasy player. Add in his career +/- rating of -29 and a shooting percentage of 9.9% and it all adds up to Eichel being overvalued. He still is a great young NHLer with loads of potential. However, you should draft someone safer if you are picking at the end of the first or early in the second.
Shea Weber – ADP 39th Overall
In his first year in Montreal, Shea Weber saw a decline in his fantasy productivity. The veteran defenseman had a career low in points, with just 42, in a season where he played in 78 games or more. He netted 15 goals last year but has been a less efficient shooter over the last few seasons, scoring at 9.5% or less in two of the previous three years. Although Weber is still good for racking up the hits, he set a career low in hits per game last season. He will be paired with a new defensive partner this season, which could help or hurt his fantasy potential. Either way, his current draft position is too high.
Henrik Lundqvist – ADP 59th Overall
Long gone are the days of King Lundqvist carrying fantasy players to a championship. However, the days of people thinking Lundqvist can win them a fantasy championship still exist. Lundqvist had arguably his worst season as a starter last year. The former Vezina trophy winning netminder set career a career worst in save percentage (.910) and GAA at 2.74. He tied his career low with just two shutouts last season, which he accomplished as a rookie in 2005-06. To add to matters, he has some healthy competition for minutes this season. He is still the main guy in New York but could see his starts cut into beginning this season by Ondrej Pavelec who has 362 career starts in his career.
Viktor Arvidsson – ADP 91st Overall
One of the more surprising 30-goal scorers last season, Viktor Arvidsson is a popular player on many draft board. The problem with Arvidsson, who could prove the doubter wrong, is there is not enough evidence to support he has the ability to be a consistent goal scorer. Arvidsson saw a huge jump in production last season, going from eight goals and 16 points in 56 games to 31 goals and 60 points in 81 games, a substantial increase. However, his goal score rate took a big hit in the playoffs last year. In last year’s regular season, Arvidsson averaged 0.383 goals per game but saw that number tumble to just 0.136 in 22 playoff games. If you average the two numbers and project for 2017-18, Arviddson is a 21-goal player and should be drafted with that level of expectations.
Zach Parise – ADP 119th Overall
Zach Parise has a lot of mileage under his belt now, and the wear-and-tear of a lengthy NHL career is being to show. Parise managed to score only 19 goals last season, the lowest he has scored in a full NHL season since his rookie year. Parise’s role on the power play is declining. The left-winger had only 12 power play points last season and had seen his total decrease every year since the 2013-14 NHL season. One last reason why Parise is over-value is his +/- rating. After a superb 2014-15 season where he finished the year with a +21 rating, the Wild winger has had back-to-back years at -3.
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