We have ourselves two Western Conference games tonight. Let’s take a look at the top NHL playoff predictions.
| Predators vs Blues ML +100 / -120 O/U 5 |
Oilers vs Ducks ML +120 / -140 O/U 5 |
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
Predators vs Blues: Maybe P.K. Subban was extra fired up by the idea that he would be playing in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and his former club, the Montreal Canadiens, would not be. That would help explain Subban’s monster night as the Nashville Predators took Game 1 in St. Louis.
Subban had himself a goal and two primary assists. He nearly had himself an empty net goal to seal the game before it was waved off for offsides. His three points, plus Vern Fiddler’s game-winning goal (yes, you read that right) gave the Predators a 4-3 victory.
Even though the Predators were the victors on the scoreboard and never even trailed in the game, St. Louis did a good job of flipping the script from the first round. Against Chicago, Nashville dominated 5-on-5 play, outscoring the Blackhawks 11-1 at even strength. Conversely, the Blues were wholeheartedly beaten down at evens against the Minnesota, yet rode their puck luck and high shooting percentage to victory.
Yet in this game, the Blues were the ones controlling 5-on-5 play, out-attempting the Preds 56-31. If not for two powerplay goals from Nashville, the Blues may have taken the series opener.
So, what does that mean going forward?
In a playoff series, predicting future games comes down to sustainability of play. The Blues played a highly unsustainable style in the opening round, yet won anyway because their opponent also played improbably poorly. The Blues made the proper adjustments to prepare for their opponent, and came up just short in the first game. However, it does mean that there is reason for optimism in Game 2. If they replicate their performance at even strength in Game 2, they will most likely win.
It does mean they will have to better prepare for Nashville’s powerplay, though. The Predators drew three penalties in the game and scored on two of those attempts. One was the first score of the game, a deflection by Colin Wilson playing in his first game back from injury. The second was a redirection off the skate of Filip Forsberg.
Both goals were generated by P.K. Subban one-timers. Subban would coast from east to west across the zone to draw the penalty killers out of position, then would plant himself at the circle to the right of the goaltender. There he would fire a slapshot like Alex Ovechkin. For the Blues, they will need to hit the video room and look at some film to better prepare for the Subban attack.
Vladimir Sobotka continues to be a godsend for the St. Louis Blues. He tied the game midway through the third period with a lethal wrist shot, giving him his second goal and fourth point of the postseason. He’s been a great scoring weapon on the wing for the Blues. They desperately needed depth scoring, and they found it.
Great play by Sobotka on this goal. Pass threat occupies Dman and keeps the shooting lane open, lightning quick release nobody's ready for pic.twitter.com/fL3iSTLqgd
— Bob Roberts (@BobRbrts) April 27, 2017
If the Blues can stay out of the box, they can even up the series. It really is as simple as that. Because not much needs to change at even strength.
Prediction: Take the Blues to win. Play the under.
Oilers vs Ducks: I wrote in my prediction article for Game 1 that the Edmonton Oilers were in for a wake-up call against the Anaheim Ducks. And I was right. But they responded far better than I had anticipated.
Ryan Getzlaf opened the scoring with a powerplay goal 37 seconds into the second period. Minutes later, Mark Letestu answered with a powerplay goal of his own on a 5-on-3 that was really a 5-on-2 because Getzlaf lost his stick.
Then in the third, all hell broke loose.
Letestu would bury another powerplay goal, then Adam Larsson sniped a corner from the slot. But the Ducks came roaring back- or, whatever Ducks do, pretty sure they don’t roar.
Heh. Ducks fans must be so sick of these jokes but I do not care one bit.
Anyway, Anaheim tied it up with a pair of goals within 90 seconds of each other. They looked to be crossing up the Edmonton defense and attacking the net. But luck was on the Oilers’ side, as Adam Larsson somehow slipped the puck past John Gibson for what has to be the weakest playoff game-winning goal of the playoffs so far.
One empty-netter later and the Oilers were up 1-0. Leon Draisaitl finished with four points.
Once again, we want to look at whether or not the Oilers played a sustainable game to carry them to four wins in the series. They did benefit from two powerplay goals on five attempts and were pretty badly outchanced at evens, 56-38. That said, the Oilers did get a good number of high-danger chances (11-9 in favor of Anaheim). The only difference is that the Ducks converted on those chances, whereas the Ducks benefitted from goals from mid-to-low percentage areas on the ice. Case in point, Larsson’s game-winner.
Let’s put it this way. The Oilers’ two even-strength goals with a goalie in the net were scored by a man with four regular season goals in 79 games. No slight to Larsson, but it’s not playing the odds.
But let’s not discredit a tremendous effort from Draisaitl. Four points is four points, and the Oilers did not back down from the Ducks’ physical presence one bit. Anaheim threw 46 hits to the Oilers’ 27.
Anaheim will need to improve their discipline. They will need John Gibson to be otherworldly, too.
Anaheim has been so good on their home ice that it is hard to bet against them in Game 2. It would be incredible if the Oilers were to bring home a 2-0 series lead after two games on the road. I’m siding with the law of averages that says that the Ducks will answer back tonight. If they don’t, it would be a potential disaster.
Prediction: Take the Anaheim Ducks to win tonight. Play the over. There’s a lot more scoring to be had tonight.
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