There are two games on the docket starting this afternoon. Let’s take a look at the top NHL playoff predictions.
| Rangers vs Senators ML -125 / +105 O/U 5 |
Penguins vs Capitals ML +125 / -145 O/U 5.5 |
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
Rangers vs Senators: Someone seriously needs to get Henrik Lundqvist some help. I mean that goal-scoring wise, not psychologically, though he may need that too if his team doesn’t start scoring for him.
The New York Rangers allowed 21 shots in the first period alone in Game 1 against the Ottawa Senators. For frame of reference, the Predators and Blues combined for 23 shots on goal through two periods last night. Lundqvist was standing on his head, making a slew of positively ridiculous saves. Not to mention the Rangers were called for three penalties in the opening frame, which made their goaltender’s job even harder.
Henrik Lundqvist. pic.twitter.com/7cVz7l41p8
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) April 27, 2017
But it was New York who opened the scoring, as Ryan McDonagh netted a powerplay goal through traffic. With Chris Kreider down low taking Craig Anderson’s eyes away, McDonagh wired a wrist shot off the pipe and in. Penalties would come back to haunt the Rangers, as the Senators finally converted on their fourth powerplay opportunity. Ryan Dzingel caught Marc Staal flatfooted in front of the net, as he potted a rebound chance from in close.
Both teams would have their fair share of chances in the third period, but the Rangers simply were not effective enough in generating high-danger chances. Many of their shot attempts in the final frame came from the outside, as the Senators’ defensive scheme caused headaches.
With less than five minutes remaining in the game, a controversial non-icing led to a Senators’ scoring chance. Erik Karlsson flung a shot towards the net from the corner, banking off Derek Stepan, off Henrik Lundqvist’s back and in. It was a lucky shot that could not be replicated if he tried.
https://twitter.com/BarSouthNCelly/status/857777672163864580
Though the Rangers applied pressure, it was never to a dangerous area of the ice. They were held at bay and the Senators took Game 1.
What did we learn from this game? Well, it’s going to be yet another Rangers playoff series where scoring comes at a premium. We also learned that Rick Nash is still floating on an island, because he was one of the few Ranger forwards able to make things happen. There were several instances where Nash would go to corral the puck and try and make a play but other forwards would be in the same spot as Nash because they could not read the play. It was very amateurish.
We also learned that Ryan Dzingel has one heck of a shot. Besides his goal he also had a breakaway and an odd-man rush that were stopped by Lundqvist. He played an awesome game.
Side note: the first two periods were called very tightly in terms of penalties. In classic playoff fashion, the refs swallowed the whistle in the third period, afraid to call anything that would break the tie. It took until the final 30 seconds with a blatant trip of J.T. Miller for them to make a call. No one team benefitted from the officiating, but it is just something I can’t stand about the playoffs.
The home team has now won five of the last six meetings between these two teams. The Sens have won four of their last five against the Rangers. And yet they are home underdogs today.
Also of note, this is the first time this postseason that the Rangers will be playing in the afternoon. The Senators have played a couple games mid-day in the first round, but the Rangers had all their games at night. Might that be an advantage for Ottawa?
I had said that the Sens and Rangers would split their first two games. While I still see that as a distinct possibility, Ottawa being a home underdog after the way they played in the series opener is too enticing. I love a home underdog to cash in on.
Prediction: Take the Senators to win. Play the stone-cold under.
Penguins vs Capitals: Sidney Crosby may have had a week off from playing, but he still was sharp as anything in Game 1 against the Washington Capitals. Crosby scored a pair of goals within 60 seconds of each other to start the second period to give the Penguins a 2-0 lead.
But it wouldn’t be Penguins-Capitals without some jostling. Alex Ovechkin would get the Caps on the board later in the period. Evgeny Kuznetsov tied things up in the third period by being in the right place at the right time. Matt Niskanen threaded the needle with a beautiful cross-slot pass and Kuznetsov had a yawning netmouth in front of him.
BIRDS OF PREY pic.twitter.com/0syVXB5JdV
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) April 28, 2017
The celebration must mean he’s a big fan of the Birds of War wrestling episode from “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia.”
Pittsburgh would get the last laugh. Nick Bonino, whose Game 6 goal still haunts Washington fans, scored on a pseudo-breakaway created by an excellent breakout and Bonino’s blazing speed. Bonino blew past Brooks Orpik to create a 1-on-1 with him and Holtby.
Bonino won. So did the Penguins.
Like the Ottawa-New York series, I predicted that the two games in Washington would be split. I stand by that prediction. The home team is 8-1 in the last nine encounters between these two teams.
Plus, Washington out-attempted Pittsburgh in Game 1 72-32. Scoring chances were 41-15 in favor of the Capitals. High-danger chances were 12-5, all this according to NaturalStatTrick.
As mentioned in my series preview, 5-on-5 play was dominated by the Capitals, but the Penguins capitalized on their high-danger chances. They utilize cross-slot passes and breakaways and they convert. Though the Caps outclassed the Penguins in terms of quantity (and quality, for the most part), Pittsburgh’s finishing ability proved to be the difference. It’s frustrating to know that even when the defense cracks down on the sheer number of scoring chances, the few mistakes that are made will most likely end up in the back of the net.
Prediction: Take the Capitals to win tonight. Play the over.
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