There’s one game on the docket tonight. Let’s take a look at tonight’s NHL playoff predictions.
| Senators vs Rangers ML +158 / -175 O/U 5 |
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
The Ottawa Senators, the team that just won’t die, have pushed the New York Rangers to the brink of elimination.
After two forgettable performances in Games 3 and 4 in New York, the Sens would need a bounceback game at home to recapture the series lead. Things got off to a rocky start as just four minutes into play, Jesper Fast finished off a 3-on-2 rush led by defenseman Brendan Smith. Craig Anderson’s lateral movement failed him, leaving a yawning netmouth following a cross-slot pass.
Nick Holden would add another just a minute later, ringing one off the corner pipe and in on a ridiculous shot.
Being no strangers to multi-goal deficits, the Senators went to work. Mark Stone would get Ottawa on the board just after Holden’s goal, muscling past Oscar Lindberg and Dan Girardi to get to a rebound. Then in the second, Mike Hoffman buried a one-timer off the rush. Erik Karlsson started the tic-tac-toe play with Clarke MacArthur getting the primary assist.
Seconds later, Tom Pyatt redirected a pass through the wickets of Henrik Lundqvist. The seeing-eye shot put the Senators on top for the first time in the game. The back and forth action would continue when Ryan McDonagh evened up the score with a tip-in right in the crease.
The score was 3-3 heading into the third. Shots were 23-23. Eleven infractions had been called in the game on both sides, including a misconduct penalty to Chris Neil.
Mayhem would ensue with just over seven minutes remaining in regulation. An offensive zone faceoff win for the Rangers led to a shot on goal from the end-line by Brady Skjei. The puck bounced into the slot where a diving Jimmy Vesey got a stick on it. Craig Anderson appeared to make a miraculous sprawling glove save. Upon further review, however, Anderson’s glove was behind the goal line. Just like that, the Rangers had the lead once again.
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Now stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Rangers held a one-goal lead in the waning moments of regulation. Ottawa had them pinned in their own zone. For whatever reason, Brady Skjei, arguably their best defenseman this postseason, was benched after Vesey’s goal. This meant double-shift duty for Marc Staal. The Senators kept applying pressure, wearing down New York’s defense.
And with a scramble in front, a pinball goal ties it.
Ottawa would outshoot the Rangers 6-0 in overtime. The sixth shot on goal went in. Kyle Turris.
For the third time this postseason and the second time this series, the Rangers flounder in the final minute and blow the game in overtime.
At what point is the man making personnel decisions to blame? At what point do people stop and think, “Marc Staal allowed the most scoring chances in Game 5 with nine and Brady Skjei had the fewest with four. Why is Staal being double-shifted?” While we’re at it, why is Tanner Glass on a line with Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello in the final minute? Has his play all of a sudden warranted a prime defensive role over, say, Rick Nash? Jesper Fast? Oscar Lindberg? Michael Grabner?
The movie is playing on repeat. Rangers head coach Alain Vigneault has cost his team once again. And it is staggering how he lacks self-awareness. In the same press conference following the game, he said that experience “is only good if you’re playing well.” Yet at the same time he praised Marc Staal and explained that he was being leaned on because of his experience. Where is the logic?
Guy Boucher, to his credit, has tinkered very little with things. Chris Neil played in Game 5 and was I guess a guy out there to “send a message,” but in 2:26 of ice time he would up negating a powerplay and taking a misconduct penalty so really he was a detriment to his team. But in the grand scheme of things, he now has another comeback victory under his belt this postseason.
The Rangers will have their season on the line tonight at Madison Square Garden. The pros of this scenario are that they have dominated home ice this series. They have looked like a different team, and Alain Vigneault utilized his better players more (he must have left his notebook in New York).
Plus, the team has Henrik Lundqvist in net, who has been pretty good at home when facing elimination at home.
Henrik Lundqvist's record when facing PO elimination at Madison Square Garden the past decade:
10-1, .965 sv%, 1.05 GAA, 2 shutouts#NYR
— HockeyStatMiner (@HockeyStatMiner) May 7, 2017
And if you want to go back in time, the Senators blew a 3-2 series lead to the Rangers in 2012 for what it’s worth.
Ottawa will need to strike fear into the Rangers’ hearts early in the game. The Garden crowd gets notoriously antsy. If the Sens lead after a period, that could be all they need to force the Rangers into panic mode. Game 5 was perhaps the Senators’ best played game, as they drove to the net and caused havoc in the blue paint. Sometimes all you need are a few fortunate bounces. Derick Brassard’s game-tying goal hit off four skaters before trickling over the goal line.
New York has been doing a good job of getting to the high-danger areas all series (save for overtime, that is). If Ottawa responds with a net-front presence of their own, they may end up walking out of New York with a series victory.
The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
While the extra day of rest served the Rangers well between Games 2 and 3, the Senators have lost four of their last five on two days of rest. It does however allow some time for Erik Karlsson to recalibrate, as his foot has taken a beating this series. Bobby Ryan left the ice with a thigh injury in Game 4, but was fine for Game 5.
Solely because I took the Rangers to win this series in seven games, I am putting my money on the Rangers to win tonight. If nothing else, I think the goaltending battle will be won by Henrik Lundqvist tonight.
Prediction: Take the Rangers to win. Play the under.
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