We have reached the penultimate round of the NHL Playoffs. Let’s take a look at what the Western Conference Final has to offer.
WCF: (Pacific Division) San Jose Sharks vs (Central Division) St. Louis Blues.
Here’s why this is the best possible series for a Western Conference Final from an objective standpoint.
Both the San Jose Sharks and St. Louis Blues have kind of been treated like a punch line these last few years. Both make the playoffs seemingly every year and neither one of them have won a Stanley Cup in 71 combined seasons. The Sharks have only won three Western Conference Final games in their history. The Blues have won one Western Conference Final game since the Sharks came into existence in 1991-1992. They made the Stanley Cup Final in each of their first three seasons way back in 1968-1970, and were promptly swept in all three by much stronger Original Six teams.
Joe Thornton had his captaincy stripped of him, as did Patrick Marleau with his ‘A.’ He and general manager Doug Wilson had a very public feud. There have been constant rumors that Marleau and Thornton would be dealt.
The Blues blew series leads left and right to the Blackhawks and Kings. Their playoff history is among the more tortured in sports.
Either way, no matter who wins, narratives are going to go out the window. And I, for one, love it. I hate when the media or talking heads on television *coughNBCSportscough* use lazily constructed narratives to sensationalize a game or a series. Yes, you are trying to entice viewers and sell the game, but popularizing half-baked ideas and totally unfounded notions on players’ character and work ethic and “clutchness” is dangerous and stupid.
I empathize with the fans of both franchises here. Which is what makes this so sweet.
As to how they got here: The Blues killed off the Dallas Stars in embarrassing fashion. Dallas hosted Game 7 of the series and promptly got roasted by terrible goaltending. They won 6-1 and will have home-ice advantage for the Western Conference Final.
San Jose made equally quick work of the Nashville Predators the very next night, winning 5-0. Roman Josi and Shea Weber had maybe the worst games of their lives, both coming up with a -5 in even-strength goal differential for the game. Before you go calling them playoff chokers though, know that those two dominated the Western Conference and the playoffs all year long. They had bad games at a bad time. They are still elite players and this does not effect their “clutchcicity.”
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory for each side.
Why the Blues will win: Powerplay strength.
San Jose gave the Nashville Predators plenty of opportunities on the man advantage, but the Preds came up empty-handed pretty often. The Preds finished 4-for-46 in the postseason on the powerplay (8.7%). The Los Angeles Kings were held to 3-for-14 in the first round (21.4%). Nashville and L.A. were both top-10 powerplay units in the man advantage, but now San Jose faces its ultimate test. St. Louis placed sixth in the league, ahead of both the Kings and Preds, at 21.5% in the regular season, just one full percent behind the Sharks. They have stayed hot throughout the postseason, going 11-for-40 through the first two rounds (27.5%). The Sharks have gone 13-for-42 (30.9%).
The difference? The Kings and Predators were both middle-of-the-road penalty killing teams in the regular season. The Blues were the third-best team in the league. If St. Louis can claim the special teams advantage away from San Jose, they have neutralized one of the most potent threats against them this series. It’s easier said than done, but the Blues can go toe-to-toe.
St. Louis’ X-factor: Confidence in the crease.
Before Game 7 of the Dallas series, there were murmurs of Brian Elliott being replaced by Jake Allen between the pipes. Coach Ken Hitchcock was slightly different in his tone following Game 6. In the Chicago series, he made it very clear in the postgame scrum that Elliott was his guy following the loss in Game 6. This time around, he said that he wanted to “sleep on it.” Granted, everyone in the room had #1’s back and were very vocal about their support and faith in him. And as it turns out, Elliott was the last thing to worry about in Game 7. Ells stopped 31 of 32 shots.
That’s why you dance with the date that brung ya. There should be no doubt who is the rightful starter for the St. Louis Blues. Elliott has put in his time and has rebounded well after rocky starts. Game 6 was not great, but then again it was pretty bad for everyone wearing blue and yellow, not just him. Stick with Elliott, through thick and thin. He gives St. Louis the best chance to make it to their first Final in 46 years.
Why the Sharks will win: That danged offense.
Man alive, did the Sharks bite hard against Nashville. Logan Couture exploded for six goals in the series, giving him a league-leading 17 points this postseason. Right behind him on that scoring leaders list? Brent Burns, with 15 points and a league-leading 11 assists. Joe Pavelski is tied for the league lead in goals with Nikita Kucherov with nine. Not to mention 11 points from Joe Thornton (more on him in a second), eight assists from Marc-Edouard Vlasic and the team’s best possession play from Joonas Donskoi. St. Louis is very tough to score against, but if anyone can break through, it’s these guys. The Blues have been taken to seven games by the Blackhawks and a Seguin-less Stars team. The pressure is going to be on.
San Jose’s X-factor: Joe Thornton.
Joe Thornton has a wrongful reputation of being a born ‘playoff loser.’ John Tortorella rather humorously labeled him “the best player to never win anything in this league” way back when. Thornton has born the brunt of his team’s failures despite terrible personnel decisions and despite being one of the most dependable players on the team through good times and bad. It’s a reputation that has in the past been slapped on Rick Nash, Marion Gaborik and even the best pure goal scorer in the world Alex Ovechkin. Guys that aren’t leaders because they haven’t won.
‘It starts at the top,’ people will say, even if the top guys are producing like crazy. People don’t care Rick Nash has 18 points in 23 playoff games these past two years. It took a historically good postseason run to the Cup with the Kings for Gaborik to shake his reputation given to him by New York media. Ovi had 12 points in 12 games this year and was one of the only things going right on the Washington powerplay.
Which brings us to Joe Thornton. Thornton who had points in nearly every single one of San Jose’s wins this season. Thornton who has 93 playoff points in 109 games in a teal uniform. Thornton the sure-fire Hall of Famer. If anyone deserves to be moving on to the next round after being kicked around by the general public, its Jumbo Joe. The dude performs, plain and simple. So watch him at work and thank him for it.
Prediction: Sharks in 7.
