We are officially in Round 2 of the NHL Playoffs. Let’s take a look at the Conference Semi-Final, Metro style.
Metropolitan Division: (#1) Washington Capitals vs (#2) Pittsburgh Penguins
This is the classic matchup that fans have been dying to see. Ovechkin vs Crosby. Kuznetsov vs Malkin. Holtby vs whoever happens to be healthy for the Penguins at the moment. Air horn followed by tri-syllabic chant vs air horn followed by tri-syllabic chant.
It’s like Batman vs Superman, only actually good.
The Washington Capitals cruised to a 3-0 series lead over the Philadelphia Flyers in the First Round. They were dinged up along the way, as Dmitry Orlov and Brooks Orpik both took nasty hits in Game 3. After a rally by the Flyers, Washington finally managed to close out the series in the sixth game.
Pittsburgh overcame some notable absences in their series against the New York Rangers. Evgeni Malkin was a late arrival to the party, as was backup-turned-emergency-starter Matt Murray. Marc-Andre Fleury has still not seen the ice this postseason. Nevertheless, their speed and powerplay units were far too much for the Rangers to handle. The Blueshirts were bounced in five games in rather humiliating fashion.
Let’s look at some of the keys to victory for each team.
Why the Capitals will win: Depth against depth.
The Penguins flexed their depth muscles last series against the New York Rangers. Their top line was great, the Bonino-Kessel-Hagelin line was kept together and ran roughshod all over the ice, and sticking Evgeni Malkin with younger less-skilled linemates did not hinder him in the slightest. In fact, Conor Sheary and Bryan Rust turned out to be unsung heroes of the entire series. Eric Fehr was an effective possession player as well. So if there’s anything to counter the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are on a roll that has lasted the last two months, it’s the Washington Capitals’ scoring depth. It’s role players like Justin Williams, Andre Burakovsky, Marcus Johansson, Mike Richards, Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie. This is a showdown between the two deepest teams in the Eastern Conference, period. And on paper, I give the Capitals the slight edge.
Washington’s X-Factor: Even-strength scoring.
If the Capitals have trouble scoring on the powerplay (more on that in a second), they are going to need to be a bit effective at 5v5. They are a dominant team possession-wise, but they have had difficulty converting. All of their even strength goals in their opening series came from their first and third lines. None from the unit of Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky. Barry Trotz has bumped Marcus Johansson up to the second line to replace Burakovsky, despite Burakovsky’s vastly superior shot-generation numbers.
Burakovsky had a great quote on his line’s performance that he told the Washington Post: “As long as you have the puck, you’re playing good defense, and I think we did.” The kid is right. His line did everything but put the puck in the back of the net. It’s no one’s fault, really. They were highly effective, just not highly productive. Two separate ideas.
Perhaps Trotz’s tinkering will do the Caps some good and spark some offense without the aid of a powerplay.
Why the Penguins will win: Aggressive penalty killing.
The Penguins do an excellent job of employing a diamond setup for the penalty kill. The diamond can be dangerous if your players down low overcommit and stray too high up in the zone. But the Pens are very patient and apply a perfect amount of pressure up high and are quick enough to recover if the Caps manage to get the puck down low. The mid-season addition of Carl Hagelin has been paramount to their success, as he is on the kill unit with Nick Bonino.
The diamond formation they employ could cause a lot of static for the Caps’ transmission. The Caps 1-3-1 attack spreads the wealth and makes weapons out of everyone on the ice so that it’s impossible to just focus on Ovechkin. Pressure up high on John Carlson with quick wingers flanking Ovi and Kuznetsov at the circles could frustrate the Caps. Washington’s incredible powerplay has gone through dry spells before. If they go on one now, it takes away a major weapon.
For more on the special teams battle, check out SB Nation’s Pensburgh, which did a tremendous breakdown.
Pittsburgh’s X-Factor: Goaltending.
Jeff Zatkoff started the first two games of the First Round. The fans rallied around their much-maligned third stringer, and he managed to win the first game. He was admirably solid but still nothing spectacular. Matt Murray came back from an upper-body injury of his own to replace him and won three consecutive starts. Murray was not tested terribly much, especially not in comparison to his opponent, but he held down the fort quite well.
Marc-Andre Fleury is still reportedly dealing with concussion symptoms as of three days ago, per CBS Sports. His return is not imminent.
It’s an interesting conundrum that the Penguins find themselves in. Marc-Andre Fleury gets a very bad rep that he chokes in the playoffs, which is an odd complaint considering he has a Stanley Cup ring on his finger. But there is something to be said for a career .906 save percentage and 2.65 goals-against average in the postseason. Murray posted a .955 save percentage in his three starts. The Penguins are at their best when Fleury is in the cage, there’s no arguing that, especially after one of the best statistical seasons of his career. But this will be a great test of just how prepared Murray is for the big time. And if Murray is standing on his head halfway through the series and Fleury says he’s ready to return, what’s the call?
This series will play like the Eastern Conference Final. It will go the distance. It will be a classic. The last time they met was a seven-game Conference Semi-Final back in 2009. The Pens won on their way to hoisting the Cup. My bet is that Alex Ovechkin would not want it any way other than going through Sidney Crosby in his pursuit for his first Stanley Cup.
Prediction: Capitals in 7.
