We have reached the penultimate round of the NHL Playoffs. Let’s take a look at what the Eastern Conference Finals have in store.
ECF: (Atlantic Division) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (Metro Division) Pittsburgh Penguins
The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second year in a row. They have made it without two of their best players in Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman. They have played the fewest games of all remaining teams in the postseason, having bested both the Detroit Red Wings and the New York Islanders in just five games. All the same, Nikita Kucherov is still tied for the postseason lead in goals with nine.
The Pittsburgh Penguins bounced the President’s Trophy-winning Capitals in six games thanks to an overtime winner by Nick Bonino in Game 6. The Pens blew a 3-0 lead in the game, but a fantastic game by the Bonino-Hagelin-Kessel line carried them to victory. Pittsburgh last reached the Eastern Conference Final in the lockout-shortened 2013 season, where they were swept by the Boston Bruins.
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory for each team.
Why the Lightning will win: The top six.
Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn and Tyler Johnson have been on another planet this postseason. Kucherov has nine goals and three assists in 10 games. Tyler Johnson has four goals and nine assists. Killorn has three goals and six assists. Each of the three has seven points at even strength and an average Corsi-for percentage of 55.8%. There have been murmurs of swapping Killorn with Ondrej Palat on the second line to try and spark some offense, which is a tough decision. Against a team like Pittsburgh that rolls four lines that are legitimate threats to score, the Bolts have to make sure their depth is just as ready. Plus, Palat has history with Kucherov and Johnson as part of the infamous “Triplets” line from last postseason. But when a connection has been as otherworldly as the top line’s without sacrificing production from the second line? Well, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Palat, Jonathan Drouin and Valtteri Filppula all have three points at even-strength and a Corsi-for percentage of 53.6%.
Tampa Bay’s X-factor: The bottom six.
Pittsbugh’s bottom six has set the standard for scoring depth this postseason, which we’ll touch on in a second. For as good as the top six has been for Tampa Bay, the bottom six has not been fantastic. Brian Boyle came up with an overtime winner against the Islanders, and he and Ryan Callahan both have three points this postseason. The problem is that the bottom six has been by and large abused on the possession front and players like Mike Blunden, Cedric Paquette and Matt Taormina have contributed next to nothing. Callahan has the worst shot-attempt ratio of all regular starters at 41.9%. The next worst forward is Boyle at 44.5%. Against a positive possession bunch like the Penguins’ third line, the Lightning are going to have their hands full.
Why the Penguins will win: Scoring from the bottom six.
Speaking of which, the Pens’ bottom six has been incredible. DailyFaceoff lists Evgeni Malkin’s line as the third line, but Malkin, Kunitz and Fehr consistently saw the second-most even-strength ice time on the team. Phil Kessel, Carl Hagelin and Nick Bonino have run roughshot over opponents, and the fourth line of Bryan Rust, Matt Cullen and Tom Kuhnhackl has been impressive at converting their chances when given. Hagelin leads the team with seven even-strength points. The third line has a combined 30 points at all situations in 11 games and the fourth has 13. That’s a lot of offense from the bottom six. The fourth line has awful possession numbers for the entire postseason, which is interesting when taking into consideration they essentially broke even in four of the six game against Washington. They were a net positive in Game 6. However, Games 1 and 3 were so drastically bad that their numbers tanked.
Pittsburgh’s X-factor: Matt Murray.
The goaltending battle is going to be interesting to monitor. The question still floats out in the hockeyverse: at what point does Marc-Andre Fleury get the call? Matt Murray has essentially Cam Ward-ed his way to the Eastern Conference Final and he has looked spectacular doing it. Murray has a .935 save percentage and a 2.05 goals-against average, good enough for third among all playoff goaltenders. And, ironically, Cam Ward’s general manager when he took over for Martin Gerber in 2006 was none other than Penguins GM Jim Rutherford.
But Mike Sullivan, who has shown tremendous patience with his goaltenders and his skaters this season, might have his limits pushed should the Penguins drop the first game or two in the series. At what point does the panic button get hit? Fleury seems to be ready and waiting in the wings at the first sign of trouble, but Murray has been much more than just good. Murray stopped 36-of-39 shots in Game 6, despite protestations from mainstream media that Murray is not the best option.
Injury news: Steven Stamkos says he’s ready to play, but he’s still on blood thinners and skating in a red non-contact jersey. There’s no end in sight.
Anton Stralman is skating and practicing with the team recovering from a fractured left leg, but he has yet to take the final step and participate in contact drills. He likely will not be able to return until late in the series, if at all.
J.T. Brown remains out indefinitely.
As of Tuesday, it was updated that there is officially no timetable for Beau Bennett to return to the Penguins. No surprise, but just in case you were wondering, now you know.
Prediction: Lightning in 7.
