The NHL Playoffs are upon us. Let’s welcome the best time of the year by taking a preliminary look at the playoff series that lay ahead.
Atlantic Division: #1 Florida Panthers vs WC1 New York Islanders
One would get the impression from the way that the New York Islanders played their final two games of the season that they wanted to match up with the Florida Panthers in the first round. They very much so had their fate in their own hands to leapfrog over the Rangers to play the Penguins, but it was pretty apparent they were perfectly comfortable where they were. If you need to back that up with something, look to their overtime game against the Sabres in which John Tavares and Kyle Okposo saw no ice time.
The series got off to an exciting start last night, with back-and-forth action and some very fast-paced action. After jockeying to stay in the game, the Islanders finally pulled ahead with a 5-3 lead in the third period, which they managed to barely hang onto for a 5-4 victory. The Cats came inches away from tying the game with seconds on the clock, but Thomas Greiss stood on his head.
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory as the series progresses.
Why the Panthers will win: The shot battle.
Florida badly outshot the Islanders 46-26 in Game 1. But the important thing to consider is the overall shots-for and shots-against per game totals. Less than a shot-for per game separates these two teams on the whole, with the slight advantage to the Islanders. The Panthers are 13th in the league in shots-allowed per game, though, while the Islanders are 24th. Again, only about a shot separates these two teams, but it’s a major difference in principal that we saw in practice in Game 1. Statistically speaking, the Islanders and Panthers are very close together. If the Panthers can stay out of the box, the 5v5 battle is going to be tight with the slight edge to the Panthers.
Florida’s X-Factor: Jaromir Jagr.
For someone with as prestigious a reputation as Jaromir Jagr, it blew my mind that he has actually not scored a goal in his last 32 playoff games. He notched 10 assists in 22 postseason games with the Bruins in 2013, and did not find the back of the net in 10 of 11 games as a Flyer in 2012. Maybe it’s just me, but I think it is incredible that Rick Nash gets flak for getting too many assists and not enough goals in the postseason, yet Jagr gets a pass. Perception is everything, and people love their pre-determined narratives.
Playoff scoring narratives are stupid, for the record. So many factors go into scoring in a playoff series that it is completely unfair to pin it on just one person, especially when scoring takes a nosedive in the playoffs anyway. But that’s another soapbox to stand on for another time.
The argument could be made that Jagr is actually better now then he was three years ago. His 27 goals this season is the highest total for him since 2006-2007. Jagr is the ageless wonder for a reason. Without Vincent Trocheck in the Panthers’ lineup, Florida will need their most experienced skater to lead the way.
Jagr does have 199 career playoff points in 203 games, in case you were curious. So the whole goalless drought does not exactly mean that Jagr deserves criticism.
Why the Islanders will win: Star power.
The Islanders have several legitimately scary threats on the ice. The most obvious of those threats is John Tavares, who had a goal and two assists in his first game. He and Kyle Okposo were clicking with Frans Nielsen on their line. Ryan Strome also buried what wound up being the game-winning goal.
It hurts that the Panthers are without Vincent Trocheck, who was in the running to be the Panthers’ leading goal scorer for the majority of the year. Their second line still is operating smoothly with Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith, but the loss of Trocheck hurts. The Isles have injuries of their own to Anders Lee and Mikhail Grabovski, but a healthy Tavares and Okposo will be tough to contain.
Travis Hamonic returning from injury is a major plus as well. Hamonic missed last year’s playoff series against the Washington Capitals, which wound up going seven games.
New York’s X-Factor: Thomas Greiss.
Thomas Greiss was under fire left and right in Game 1 last night, especially in the final five minutes. Even with the Panthers shorthanded for two of the final three minutes of the game, the Cats’ aggressive forecheck managed to get some quality chances on net. As the seconds ticked off, he made a spectacular save on Jaromir Jagr to prevent the game from being tied once again. Gress stopped 42 of 46 shots.
The Islanders are looking to lock up their first playoff series victory since 1993. They will be attempting to do so with their second-string goaltender in net. Greiss is more than capable of leading the Isles to next round.
Prediction: Islanders in 7.
