NHL Playoffs: Predictions for April 18th

Let’s take a look around the NHL playoffs at the top picks, plays and predictions.

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

#1 Capitals vs WC2 Flyers: If there was ever going to be a time for the whole “playing for the deceased” narrative to take hold, it would be tonight. The Flyers have a video tribute to owner Ed Snider tonight, who passed before the start of the postseason. Many figured that the motivation of playing for their owner would spark the Flyers in the first game of the series. They have looked flat and unthreatening thus far.

The Flyers did dominate the shot battle on Saturday, 42-23. Washington came away with a 4-1 victory nonetheless. Steve Mason left the Verizon Center with his tail between his legs after surrendering a goal from center ice early in the second period to fall behind 2-0. Nick Backstrom recorded a three-point night Saturday in Game 2. Jakub Voracek scored the lone goal for the Flyers, as Philly got on the board for the first time in the series.

Washington’s powerplay has been lethal. They were a perfect 2-for-2 in Game 2, with John Carlson and Alex Ovechkin both striking on the man advantage. The Caps scored on the powerplay in Game 1 as well.

The Caps are 1-5 in their last six in Philadelphia. As someone who anticipated a long series at the start of the playoffs, I expect the Flyers to put up a much better fight tonight. My heart (and my need to be right all the time) says that the Flyers at +123 is a nice play. My head says that Braden Holtby has stopped 60-of-61 shots and has looked “on.”

My thinking is basically this: if the Flyers go down 3-0, it will be a sweep. If they win tonight, it will be a series. My bet is still on series.

Prediction: Take the Flyers to win at home. Something’s gotta give. Play the under.

#1 Stars vs WC2 Wild: Dallas came away with a 2-1 victory in Game 2. The Stars dominated in Game 1 and took a 2-0 lead in Game 2 before Marco Scandella finally broke a 112 minute shutout streak with a powerplay goal in the third.

Erik Haula saw 16:28 of ice time and was a -1 in his return to the Wild’s lineup after missing Game 1.

The offensive struggles facing Minnesota forced John Torchetti’s hand in switching Mikael Granlund to the first line, swapping spots with Charlie Coyle. With Granlund added to the top line, he got seven shots on goal, three of them prime chances that would not go. Granlund, Mikko Koivu and David Jones essentially broke even on shots at 5v5.

The top line for Minnesota was a positive in Game 1, though score effects have a hand in that.

There’s still no sign of Zach Parise or Thomas Vanek’s return being imminent. Tyler Seguin was quiet in his comeback from an Achilles injury.

The Wild are 1-1-2 in their last four on home ice against the Stars. The over is 4-0 in that stretch. If the Wild are going to get back in the series, they need to stake a claim to home ice, as I mentioned in my series preview. Staking a claim is not enough, actually- they will need to be perfect.

You will see an energized Wild team on home ice. But missing two of their best scorers is simply too crippling to put a bet on them. Dallas at -130 is a fair price.

Prediction: Take the Stars to win. Play the under.

#2 Kings vs #3 Sharks: The Kings are in a very familiar spot down two games in the series to the San Jose Sharks. After all, was it not just two years ago they found themselves in an even more unenviable position down 3-0 to these very Sharks?

The Kings are 3-1 in series where they drop the first game under Darryl Sutter, regardless of whether they lose the second game as well. In fact, they lose the second game more often than not as well. Tonight, they well enter the Shark Tank, where San Jose has a losing record. The Sharks are 18-20-3 at home. The Kings are 22-16-2 on the road.

In an interesting moment following Game 2, Marian Gaborik was awarded the Third Star of the Game honors. Gaborik, who returned to the lineup after missing more than two months with a knee injury, recorded four shots on goal in over 14 minutes of ice time. He did not register a point. He was a 62.5% Corsi at 5v5 spending most of his time on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Milan Lucic.

Either last game was one of the most physical of the year, or the scorers in Los Angeles are extremely generous with their hit totals. Both teams had over 40 hits in the game to combine for 87. Only the third game of the Panthers-Islanders series registered more hits (88). The Rangers and Penguins combined for 85 in their first game.

The Kings led the league in hits-per-game in the regular season, and they did so while also leading the league in team Corsi percentage. And to refute my own point, the Kings led the league in road hits too, so it’s not just the Staples Center scorers. That is the definition of a scary team.

Prediction: San Jose’s troubling play at home will haunt them tonight. Take the Kings to win. Play the over. Expect a brawl or two as well.