Let’s take a look around the NHL playoffs at the top picks, plays and predictions.
| Red Wings vs Lightning ML +136 / -150 O/U 5 |
Penguins vs Rangers ML -121 / +110 O/U 5 |
| Ducks vs Predators ML -106 / -104 O/U 5 |
Blackhawks vs Blues ML +112 / -124 O/U 5 |
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
#3 Red Wings vs #2 Lightning: The Red Wings are on the ropes. They are in danger of losing in the first round for the third straight year and the fourth time in five years. For a team that makes the playoffs every year, they have not been to the Conference Final since 2008-2009, when they lost the Stanley Cup Final to the Penguins. That sort of stat is a bit twisted, though, as they switched conferences following the 2013 lockout.
Nikita Kucherov continued his playoff dominance in Game 4, tallying twice and lodging an assist on the game-winning goal in a 3-2 victory in Detroit. Kucherov leads the playoffs with eight points, with five goals and three assists. Jonathan Drouin grabbed three helpers in the game as well. So much for the rift there.
All three Lightning goals came on the powerplay. Petr Mrazek stopped 22 shots at even strength, but only seven of 10 shorthanded. Mrazek has not allowed a goal at 5v5 this series in two games.
Here’s the bright side and the down side: the bright side is that a road win tonight brings the series back home for the Red Wings, where they are more than capable of evening the series and forcing a Game 7. Detroit’s play at even strength on home-ice is more than encouraging for their ability to do so.
The down side is that every game from here on out is potentially Pavel Datsyuk’s last game as a Wing. Now that is a bummer.
The down-er side is that Ben Bishop’s 2.06 home goals-against average is going to be terribly hard to overcome.
Prediction: Take the Bolts to win at -150. Play the under.
#2 Penguins vs #3 Rangers: The margin for error is terribly small in the NHL playoffs. To quote “Any Given Sunday:” “one half step too late or too early and you don’t quite make it; one half second too slow or too fast and you don’t quite catch it.” In the third period of Game 3, Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle bumped into each other at the blueline as a miscommunication had them both going to play the puck. The collision gave Matt Cullen just enough time to charge forward, corral the puck and break in alone. He slipped the puck in between Henrik Lundqvist’s right skate blade and the post to give the Pens a 2-1 lead in both the game and the series.
One freak play seemingly decided the entire game.
Of course, this is not the only reason the Rangers lost. New York completely fell apart in the final 20 minutes. In the first two periods, both teams skated at a very high intensity. The Rangers had a goal waved off due to offsides, but Rick Nash got them back on the board with a patented shorthanded breakaway goal. Once again, a fine period in the second frame was squandered in the final minute, as Sidney Crosby deflected a powerplay goal on the doorstep with 42 seconds left on the clock. After that, the Rangers managed just four shots on goal to the Penguins’ 12.
Ryan McDonagh made his return to the Rangers’ lineup. McDonagh was visibly uncomfortable handling the puck, as he did not register a shot on goal and had just one shot attempt at even strength. He was a -8 in 5v5 shot differential as a result. Either McDonagh should not be playing and Dylan McIlrath should be reinserted (or Raphael Diaz), or he should be playing limited, less-offensive minutes. Because he is not ready.
Conversely, the Penguins’ utilization of Evgeni Malkin has been very successful. When Malkin returned from injury, they did not surround him with Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin as they had before his trip to the injured reserve. Instead, they have slotted him in with Eric Fehr and either Conor Sheary or Chris Kunitz. Malkin makes everyone around him better- so, since Hagelin and Kessel have been successful with Nick Bonino, they now have the luxury of spreading the wealth. Eric Fehr was a +9 in shots at 5v5 with Evgeni Malkin in Game 3. Conor Sheary was a +7.
Matt Murray will be back in net for the Pens. Murray stopped 16 of 17 shots in Game 3 and faced all of two high-danger scoring chances.
Aside from allowing goals in the final minute, the thorn in the Rangers’ side has been their penalty killing, which has been awful all year. The Penguins are 4-for-13 on the man advantage in this series, whereas the Rangers are 1-for-12.
The Rangers’ only shot at winning the series is winning Game 4 at home. It’s actually at the point where the Pens are the favorite on the road. Tonight is do-or-die.
Prediction: I’m putting my money on “die.” Take the Penguins to win at -121. Play the over.
#1 Ducks vs WC1 Predators: The Ducks finally got on the board after they dropped both of the first two games on home ice. Anaheim got contributions from some of the grinders in their top six, as Chris Stewart and Jamie McGinn both tallied in the 3-0 victory.
Stewart’s aggressiveness on the forecheck forced a turnover that led to a beautiful tic-tac-toe play for the first goal of the game, scored by McGinn. Rickard Rakell then angled an impossibly good deflection past Rinne on a shot that was heading way wide of the net. Stewart then put the game out of reach late in the second with a goal off his own juicy rebound.
Nashville looked antsy for the first time all series. They were careless with the puck, giving it away 14 times to the Ducks’ three. They went 0-for-5 on the man advantage with seven shots on goal. Their defenseman not named Roman Josi and/or Shea Weber had a hard time getting the puck out of their own zone in transition.
Game 4 has been deemed as about as even as it gets according to the lines. Frederik Andersen entering the net has given Anaheim more of a competitive edge now, it would seem. Andersen stopped 27 shots for a shutout in his first playoff start this season.
Prediction: We’re going to have a tie series after tonight. Take Anaheim to win at a very fair price. Play the under.
#3 Blackhawks vs #2 Blues: The Chicago Blackhawks, of all teams, could be the first eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs tonight. Both the Red Wings and the Blackhawks are staring a 3-1 series deficit in the face tonight with a game to be played on the road tonight. St. Louis and Chicago split the first two games at the Scottrade Center.
The last time the Blackhawks were in a 3-1 series hole was the 2014 Western Conference Final. The Hawks managed to win both Game 5 and 6 before finally losing in overtime in Game 7. Alec Martinez had the game-winner.
The Hawks will be without Andrew Shaw tonight after the embarrassing performance he put on in Game 4, flipping off a referee and calling him a homophobic slur. It’s just another in a long slew of terrible incidents this postseason.
Shaw was tied for the team lead in playoff points with four. He was also the only player in the entire Chicago bottom six that had notched any points.
The Blues have the chance to march into the second round for the first time in four years. They will have to stomp on the throat of the defending champs to do so. Chicago is the underdog to prevent defeat, listed as a +112.
Chicago outshot the Blues 42-20 in Game 4. My guess is that they won’t go quietly into the night.
Prediction: Take the Blackhawks to stave off elimination tonight. Play the over.
