Tonight is the night. Game 7. The Eastern Conference has been decided, as Nick Bonino’s overtime winner propelled the Pittsburgh Penguins into the Conference Final for the first time since 2013, where they will meet the Tampa Bay Lightning. Now, it’s time for the first half of the Western Conference to be decided. Let’s take a look at the picks, plays and predictions for the Central Division Final.
The Blues are listed as the favorite on the road at -108. The Stars are not far behind, listed at -102. Per the usual, the over/under is set at 5.
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
The St. Louis Blues will be sticking with Brian Elliott in net tonight. I am not exactly sure why there was much of a controversy to begin with. Elliott has allowed 13 goals this series, with a .926 save percentage for the entire postseason. The problem stems from the fact that the Stars only mustered 14- yes, 14- shots on goal in Game 6 and they still came away with the victory. The Blues fell 3-2 despite winning the shot battle 37-14. Even-strength shot attempts were 62-22 in favor of St. Louis.
Elliott was yanked in the first period after allowing three goals on seven shots. Mattias Janmark beat Elliott glove side on a breakaway despite being at a bad angle. Elliott then made an ill-advised pass less than a minute later and Kevin Shattenkirk failed to clear his man from the crease and the Stars had a 2-0 lead.
The third goal was a penalty kill failure of epic proportions.
https://twitter.com/myregularface/status/729835833583403009
Yeah. Yikes.
Shots were almost even in the first: Blues with nine, Stars with seven.
Sticking with Ells is the right decision in the end. Dance with the date that brung ya. He has the faith of the room too, as David Backes, Troy Brouwer and Alex Pietrangelo, veterans all, expressed that they would be “surprised” if #1 was not in net and were quick to compliment his play.
Colton Sceviour tallied two assists on the night for Dallas, and Vernon Fiddler collected his first goal of the postseason. Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund scored for the Blues to make the game interesting.
After not being able to make it as far as a Game 7 in a series in over a decade, the Blues now find themselves facing their second winner-take-all scenario this season. This time, they will not have the benefit of home-ice advantage.
For what it’s worth, Ken Hitchcock is 4-2 in Game 7s as a head coach, while Lindy Ruff is 0-3. Presented without context, as both records have been the result of their coaching other teams by and large.
Tyler Seguin skated, but will not play.
If Dallas wants to control the puck better, they are going to have to do all they can to keep the Kris Russell-Jason Demers pairing off the ice. It would be easy to say they were both a 0 +/-, so they must have been effective. On the contrary. The pairing went up against the Blues’ top line of Steen-Tarasenko-Schwartz. Russell and Demers were on the ice for a goal scored off Brian Elliott’s turnover, but looked like their skates had been dipped in concrete for Alex Steen’s goal to get the Blues on the board. Together on the ice, the Stars had six shot attempts for and 30 against. The two had one shot attempt between them off the stick of Demers. One.
They saw nearly 10 minutes against one of the most lethal scoring lines in the league. They best not tempt the fates again.
Why? Because sticking Russell and Demers on the bottom six lines has actually worked to Dallas’ favor. Guys like Troy Brouwer, Alex Steen and Paul Stastny have been abusing the pair, and they have seen limited time against Tarasenko’s line this series. Now that they have seen extensive time against them, it is clear that they cannot keep pace. John Klingberg and Alex Goligoski should see those minutes. Maybe even Johnny Oduya.
For more on this, check out Defending Big D over at SB Nation. They did a great breakdown of Russell’s play with Demers.
The Blues need to convert their chances. Tarasenko has not scored in three road games this series. They need to rattle Kari Lehtonen’s cage, as Lindy Ruff has been clear that he is unafraid to replace him with Antti Niemi.
The Stars need to tighten up in front of Lehtonen to make sure that exact thing does not happen. Exit the zone crisper and keep the wheels in motion.
Prediction: It’s going to be dead even. Again, I find myself siding with my gut prediction before the series against my better judgment. Take the Blues to win. Play the over. The final score will be 4-3.
