The Eastern Conference Finals are ready to begin. Here are the top picks, plays and predictions.
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
The Penguins are heavy favorites heading into tonight’s matchup, listed at -175. The over/under is set at 5.
Those who read the series preview I posted this morning should be well aware how these two teams got here. But in case you need a refresher: Tampa Bay made quick work of the Islanders with the help of two overtime wins on the road. They dominated possession all series, ensuring the lowest total games played of any remaining playoff team.
Right on their heels in that department are the Pittsburgh Penguins, who dispatched the Eastern Conference favorite Washington Capitals in six games after besting the New York Rangers in five. Their third line has stepped up to the plate, as Nick Bonino, Carl Hagelin and Phil Kessel have combined for 30 points in 11 games.
The Lightning have the benefit of an extra day off heading into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Tampa has had off since Sunday; the Pens wrapped up their series on Monday.
The Penguins are now 5-1 on home ice this postseason. They are 6-0 in their last six defending home ice against teams with a winning road record (the Rangers were 19-17-5 and therefore do not count). The Bolts have struggled in Pittsburgh on the whole, as they are 1-7 in their last eight visits. The home team is 6-1 in the series between these two teams overall.
The over is 10-1 in the last 11 encounters in Pittsburgh.
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the Lightning heading into this series is slowing the juggernaut that has gained so much momentum this postseason. Not having home-ice advantage is a buzzkill. But Pittsburgh has already been competing at an ultra-high level this season because of their opponents. They have had to take down two hated division rivals, one of them a legitimate contender to hoist the Cup come June. The back-and-forth series against the league’s winningest team might have already put the Penguins in a late playoff mindset. The Lightning have beaten two very tough teams, but it is hard to make the case that even without Steven Stamkos or Anton Stralman in their lineup that they were a worse team on paper than the Islanders or Red Wings.
After making a statement beating up on the Rangers in Round 1, the Penguins won all four of their games against Washington by just one goal. the Lightning have won five one-goal games over two rounds.
Even without two of the best players in the league at their respective position, the Bolts have dominated possession. Their top line of Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn and Tyler Johnson has been a force to be reckoned with, and Jonathan Drouin has been a standout performer since his midseason drama.
Matt Murray is the probable starter for tonight’s game. Though Murray let in a handful of goals that he would like to have back in the Washington series, he has proven to be an athletic workhorse of a goaltender capable of stealing games. His .935 save percentage and 2.05 goals-against average is third among all playoff goalies in each category. Murray is full-on Cam Ward-ing his way to the Stanley Cup Final, and it has been amazing to watch.
The problem will come if the Penguins fall behind the series. Should Pittsburgh get down 2-0 or 2-1 in the series, there may be more pressure on Mike Sullivan to insert Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes.
Just ahead of Murray in those categories is none other than Ben Bishop, who has a .938 save percentage and a 1.89 goals against average- second in each category.
For those curious, Braden Holtby is technically the leader in save percentage and goals-against average, meaning that Bishop and Murray are the two best goaltenders left performance-wise.
Prediction: Home ice advantage has made all the difference in the world for the Pens. While momentum is an enigmatic thing that is impossible to quantify, Pittsburgh will be hard to stop. At least, until they get to Tampa. Take the Pens to win tonight. Play the over.
