NHL Playoffs: Predictions for May 3rd

We have ourselves a pretty full card tonight, with three games to be played. Here are the top picks, plays and predictions.

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

#2 Lightning vs WC1 Islanders: The Tampa Bay Lightning looked much more cohesive as a unit in Game 2 on home ice, as they soundly beat the Islanders 4-1. Tyler Johnson led the way with three points, while Jonathan Drouin and Victor Hedman both had multi-point nights as well.

Nikolay Kulemin tallied the lone goal for the Islanders, his first goal this postseason.

Johnson got the scoring started for the Lightning on a play started by a gorgeous Victor Hedman stretch pass. Part of why the Lightning miss the services of Anton Stralman so much is because of his innate ability to find a seam up ice. His absence puts much more pressure on Hedman to be the quarterback of the offense. This time, the play worked to perfection. Hedman found Ondrej Palat as he entered the attacking zone, who then sauced the puck over to a streaking Johnson.

Drouin then managed to slip a backhander under the leg pad of Thomas Greiss after Valtteri Filppula masterfully spun a defending Kulemin around to create space.

For now the second time this series and the umpteenth time this postseason, the Islanders were outshot by a pretty significant margin. The Lightning got 31 shots on goal, while the Isles only mustered 20.

The pros and the cons of the Islanders’ play: their lone goal came on the man advantage. Alan Quine grabbed his fourth assist of the playoffs, which is remarkable. They now have seven powerplay goals in 30 opportunities, and are 2-for-9 this postseason. They are roughly 5% more efficient than they were in the regular season, which is not bad considering they are missing some key offensive players like Anders Lee, who had 14 powerplay points this season.

The downside is that their solid play on the man advantage and their high shooting percentage is masking the fact that they are the single most outshot team remaining in the postseason. Only the Minnesota Wild had a lower shot-attempt percentage rate in their six games. They are converting on their chances, which is great, but they are on a precarious perch where if the bounces stop going their way, they will have a hard time getting back in games.

The silver lining is that they convert when given the opportunity. But 20 shots on goal is not going to cut it. They had only 22 shots on goal in Game 1, but scored five goals. One was on the powerplay.

Turning it on at home has not been a problem for the Isles thus far. They are also 4-0 in their last four games following a loss by three or more goals, which is encouraging. And they are 13-3 at home against the Lightning.

Prediction: Take Brooklyn to win at -107. Play the over.

#3 Sharks vs WC1 Predators: The San Jose Sharks have taken control of home-ice advantage. They are now 3-1 at the SAP Center this postseason after taking a commanding 2-0 lead in the series, and are heading out where they are most comfortable- the road.

This is now the second time this postseason the Sharks have found themselves holding a 2-0 series lead. They dropped Game 3 at home against the Kings last round.

Game 1 was a flexing of muscle on the powerplay for San Jose. Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture both tallied. Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Joel Ward looked particularly at home, and the Sharks went 2-for-3. Couture picked up another powerplay goal to open Game 2, where the Sharks were 1-for-2.

They have eight powerplay goals in 26 opportunities this postseason.

Game 2 was a step in the right direction for Nashville. They limited shots, they held the physical advantage; they just could not solve Martin Jones.

Now is the time to demand more from the special teams units for Nashville. As they head back home in a deep hole, they desperately need some more, for lack of a better word, ‘oomph’ on the powerplay. They are just 2-for-31 in nine games. Teams can win despite a struggling powerplay, like the Cup-winning 2007 Ducks or the Eastern Conference Champion 2014 Rangers. But against a team like the Sharks who can score at will when given the chance, there needs to be some retaliation.

Brent Burns has 11 points this postseason, five coming on the powerplay.

The Preds also need a rejuvenation of their second line. They are generating chances but failing to convert. Filip Forsberg is stuck in a seven-game rut.

Prediction: For Nashville’s own sake, they better win Game 3. Take the Preds to win at -110. Play the under.

#1 Stars vs #2 Blues: The Dallas Stars staged a spirited comeback in Game 2, but it was the St. Louis Blues that emerged victorious in overtime. Down 3-1, the Stars got goals from Mattias Janmark and a last-minute beauty from Jamie Benn. David Backes netted the game-winner on a rebound.

Benn’s equalizer was his first goal of the series. After being held off the scoresheet in Game 1, Benn notched a goal and an assist.

Dallas is now confronting a crisis of confidence. LeftWingLock lists Antti Niemi as the likely starter for Game 3. It’s the playoffs. Even though there is pressure to jerk around the short leash, players do not respond well to not knowing who the starter is that night. It’s simply the principle of the thing.

Tonight is Tony X’s first Blues home game. Get pumped.

Prediction: Take the Blues to win at -139. Play the over.