Happy Mother’s Day, everybody. We have an afternoon special for you all today, as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the New York Islanders for Game 5. Let’s take a look at the picks, plays and predictions.
| Islanders vs Lightning ML +140 / -155 O/U 5 |
Here are the starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
It seems like every day the Islanders and Lightning play a game in their series, they are the only game of the day. All eyes are on Tampa Bay tonight, as the Bolts have a chance to punch a ticket to the Eastern Conference Final for the second year in a row.
The line has the Islanders set as pretty significant underdogs. They were outshot and outchanced badly in the first two games in the series down in Florida. They managed to split the games. Coming back home to Brooklyn, the possession battle was even, with the Isles actually holding a slight advantage in regulation play. Nevertheless, the Lightning came away with two overtime victories.
In Game 4, Kyle Okposo opened up the scoring on a beautifully executed tic-tac-toe play on the man advantage. Frans Nielsen got the puck down low to Nikolay Kulemin, who quickly tapped it back out to the slot to an open Okposo. A perfectly placed wrist shot put the Islanders on top early.
Brooklyn would hold onto that lead for the remainder of the first and the entirety of the second period. Things changed just over seven minutes into the third.
Take a guess who scored the equalizer. No seriously, take a wild shot in the dark.
That’s right, Nikita Kucherov tallied his eighth goal of the postseason at 7:49 in the third period. The play was initiated by Alex Killorn stapling Nick Leddy into the boards behind the Islanders net. Tyler Johnson quickly provided support and managed to slip away from defenders to find a passing lane. Kucherov, on the move and probably only looking to get a rebound off of Greiss’ leg pads, managed to elevate the puck just enough to find a seam right along the right post under the goalie’s blocker.
The game would head to overtime, where Jason Garrison ended things quickly. A minute and thirty-four seconds into extra time, Andrej Sustr collected the puck after a Garrison wrist shot was blocked up high. Sustr again fed Garrison, this time for a one-timer slapshot that found its way to the back of the net. The goal was Garrison’s first of the playoffs. The assist was Sustr’s first point. Ondrej Palat was credited with a secondary assist on the play. Garrison had only five goals and six assists in the regular season in 72 games.
When I talked about the Islanders having to worry about the bounces not going their way earlier in the series, this is what I was talking about. Hockey is really stupid in that a team can get a minimal number of shots to the net, but if they all fall, they are playing great hockey. They can dominate possession and play a much tighter offensive game, but if they are not scoring that opens the door for the opposition. The Islanders are not a great possession team. As they head back to Tampa Bay for Game 5 tonight, they are probably going to lose the shot battle on the road, as they have done virtually all season. That means there is a lot more pressure on them to bury the few chances that they do get.
Now that they have suffered back-to-back heartbreaking losses on home ice, they have to be demoralized. They are down, but not out. By the same token, they are heading into enemy territory down 3-1. The Bolts went 25-13-3 on home ice this season, and were 32-8-1 in the year prior at Amalie Arena.
There is a reason the odds-makers put the Islanders as such heavy underdogs. They need Lady Luck on their side tonight. They also need to open up more space for John Tavares, who has been held pointless in his last three games with a -3 rating and only seven shots on goal. He is a marked man, and they need to find a way to create more opportunities for him.
One way they are going to try and do that is by reuniting him with Kyle Okposo, which they have not tried in quite some time. Tavares will have Okposo and Josh Bailey on his wing on the top line. Ryan Strome will skate on the second line with Frans Nielsen and Nikolay Kulemin.
Anders Lee will be back in the Islanders lineup tonight so it would seem, as Lee took line rushes with the third line alongside Brock Nelson and Shane Prince.
The reunion of Okposo and Tavares will be exciting to watch, but will it be enough to stave off elimination?
Prediction: My bet is on no. Take the Bolts to close things out. Play the under.
