The NHL Playoffs are upon us. Let’s welcome the best time of the year by taking a preliminary look at the playoff series that lay ahead.
Metro Division: #2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs #3 New York Rangers
This is a rematch of last years’ first round matchup, which saw the Rangers march on to the second round in five games. Even though the Penguins were totally depleted on their blueline, their stars were going through arid scoring droughts, and they had backslid so hard that they very nearly missed the playoffs entirely, all five games were decided by just one goal. Two of those games went to overtime.
Former-Ranger-current-Penguin Carl Hagelin had a primary assist on the Game 4 overtime winner. He scored the series-clincher in overtime in Game 5.
These two teams are in very different spots now than they were when they met a year ago. They are even more different from when they met two years ago in the Conference Semi-Final. Rather than limping their way into the playoffs, the Penguins surged their way in, going on an incredible run that propelled them from the second Wild Card spot to the second spot in the Metro.
The Penguins went 14-2-0 in their final 16 games. The Rangers went 9-7-3 from March 1st on. While momentum resets in a way from the regular season into the postseason, it still has a major bearing on confidence and coherence.
Let’s take a look at some of the biggest difference-makers of the series.
Why the Penguins will win: Speed.
Speed kills. Last year the Rangers held a major speed advantage with Carl Hagelin on their side. Now, he is on the other end of the ice, and Pittsburgh went and brought in Phil Kessel before the season’s start. Kessel is a point per game player this season against the Rangers, tallying two goals and two assists in four games. Carl Hagelin had an assist in his last game against his old club, and the Kessel-Hagelin-Cullen line caused a lot of trouble for the Rangers’ blueline, specifically the immobile Dan Girardi. Ryan McDonagh also struggled mightily, but he will not be in the lineup tonight. More on that in a bit.
Pittsburgh’s X-Factor: Marc-Andre Fleury.
Marc-Andre Fleury posted the best goals-against average and the highest save percentage of his career this year. However, Flower has been sidelined because of a concussion. While he has practiced with the Penguins, and LeftWingLock has him as the confirmed starter, it still is unclear whether he is at 100%. This could be cause for concern considering that Fleury already has a tendency to let in more goals he has clear sight on than he should. If he is otherwise impaired or concerned about his head, his focus could not all be there. In order for the Pens to go anywhere, they need Marc-Andre Fleury at full strength.
Why the Rangers will win: Improved special teams.
The Rangers’ penalty kill has been brutal all season long. But for what it’s worth, it has looked a lot better in their last 10 games. They have killed off 27 of their last 32 penalties, which makes for an 84.4% kill rate. That is a considerable improvement from their 78.2% kill rate on the season, which is officially the worst in franchise history since 1988. Only the Minnesota Wild have a worse penalty kill as a playoff team.
On the man advantage, they have seven goals in their last 10 games. They are still 11th among playoff teams in powerplay percentage. But before you go looking at Keith Yandle or Rick Nash and blindly saying that the team needs more from its “big guns,” know that the “big guns” have been there all year and they have always been there. Instead, look at guys like Kevin Klein, Dan Boyle and Dan Girardi who will all assuredly see more powerplay time since Ryan McDonagh is out. A star can only shine as bright as his supporting cast. Powerplays are a five-man unit. One weak link can break the whole chain, and for the Rangers, their weak links are all on the blueline.
New York’s X-Factor: Marc Staal.
It is pretty impossible to defend Marc Staal and Dan Girardi this season as having “good” years. They have been pretty disappointing to say the least. Their possession numbers have taken a massive nosedive, they simply do not look nearly as fleet of foot as they were and they are allowing a ridiculous number of high danger chances. Towards the end of the season, Alain Vigneault started taking away 5v5 minutes from his two high-priced defensemen and giving more to Keith Yandle and Kevin Klein.
It appears as though Staal and Girardi will be paired together for Game 1 at least, with the intention likely to have them go up against the Sidney Crosby line (Crosby-Kunitz-Hornqvist). It’s better than having them go up against the Kessel-Hagelin-Nick Bonino line at least. The Blueshirts will desperately need a return to form for 18 and 5 to keep pace with the faster, more offensive Penguins.
As a side note, losing home ice advantage is killer for the Rangers, who love Game 7s at the Garden.
Prediction: Penguins in six.
