The NHL Playoffs are upon us. Let’s welcome the best time of the year with a preliminary look at the playoff series that lay ahead.
Central Division: (#1) Dallas Stars vs (WC2) Minnesota Wild
The Dallas Stars surged to the top of the Central Division standings, dominating teams all year long with their incredible offensive rush. Jamie Benn came in second in the scoring race with 89 points. Offseason acquisition Patrick Sharp made himself right at home. They were the only team other than the President’s Trophy winning Capitals to reach 50 wins.
The Minnesota Wild were able to hang on to the second Wild Card spot down the stretch, fending off the Colorado Avalanche. They looked to be more energized after a changing of the guard at head coach, as the more reserved and calculating Mike Yeo was replaced by loudmouth John Torchetti. The Wild were not exactly discernibly a better team under Torchetti, but they were at the very least a more motivated one. They went 15-11-1 after the coaching change.
By the way, I saw a few people wearing Minnesota North Stars jerseys in Dallas during Game 1. They were not Modano jerseys. I’m genuinely curious which team those people support.
Anyway, here are some of the keys to victory for each team.
Why the Stars will win: Dominant possession.
With Minnesota missing some key players (more on that in a second), Dallas looked completely in control for Game 1, and they can expect more of the same going forward. They held the shot advantage 32-22 in Game 1, with Dallas also leading the scoring chance battle 17-8. Dallas was third in the league in Corsi-for percentage with a team rating of 52.5%. Minnesota placed in the bottom 10 with a 47.9% rating. Not to mention, Minnesota owns the worst penalty kill percentage of any playoff team at 77.9% (27th in the league). Dallas has the fourth-best powerplay unit in the league (22.1%). It all adds up to trouble for Minnesota.
Dallas’ X-Factor: Tyler Seguin.
Tyler Seguin was ruled out for Game 1. No duh, we all said. The dude injured his Achilles and was kind enough to show a gruesome picture on Twitter. But then the buzz started growing louder, and Lindy Ruff confirmed that Seguin would be a game-time decision for Game 2. If Seguin comes back and looks fresh? It could be lights-out for Minnesota.
Why the Wild will win: Perfection at home.
There is not really one definitive stat that points to the Wild having a leg up on the Stars. The one thing Minnesota has been able to lean on these past couple of years has been their play on home ice, though. If they really are going to go the distance with the best team in the Western Conference, they need to be perfect at home. They are 7-4-1 on home ice dating back to the lockout-shortened 2013 season.
Minnesota’s X-Factor: Health.
If Tyler Seguin coming back to the Dallas lineup for Game 2 is a potential deciding factor, then so is the return of Zach Parise to the Minnesota Wild. The Wild were missing Parise, Thomas Vanek and Erik Haula from Game 1. That is their first-, fourth-, and sixth-best goal scorers. Yikes. Parise and Vanek did not even travel with the team to Dallas, whereas Haula did. That is a killer. Minnesota looked toothless in Game 1 without their top players. Parise could be out for the rest of the series, but the Wild desperately need a spark to come from somewhere.
The only other thing that could work to Minnesota’s favor is Kari Lehtonen. Lehtonen (25-10-2) is far from being among the league’s elite, with a 2.76 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage. If things really do take a turn for the worst, Antti Niemi is on the bench as the backup. Niemi went 25-13-7 this season with a 2.67 goals-against average and .905 save percentage. It’s only a marginal improvement, but Niemi does have a Stanley Cup under his belt with the Chicago Blackhawks way back when. Should Minnesota get a few bounces to go their way, they could plant a seed of doubt in Dallas’ goaltenders as the revolving door commences.
I hate picking sweeps. I don’t think I could ever pick a sweep because I think it’s just too harsh to say a team has literally no chance whatsoever at winning a single game. But if the Wild don’t get Parise, Vanek and/or Haula back? This will be over quick. But I’ll say that they will get at least one of those players back and steal one on home ice.
Prediction: Stars in 5.
