At one point, Nick Chubb was a superstar prospect. As a freshman with the Georgia Bulldogs in 2014, Chubb replaced Todd Gurley after the latter suffered a torn ACL. He rushed for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns en route to First-team All-SEC and SEC Freshman of the Year honors.
But as a sophomore, Chubb suffered a serious injury of his own. Though talented, he was never quite the same. After his fourth and final year at Georgia, he entered the draft and the Cleveland Browns selected him 35th overall.
Welcome to Cleveland, Nick Chubb!https://t.co/bbrD5GcJmO pic.twitter.com/x9i2rUZOUi
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) April 27, 2018
Chubb will get plenty of chances in the NFL after what he put on tape pre-injury. There’s always a chance he’ll return to form, just as Gurley did when he entered the NFL. Unfortunately, this is not an ideal situation for Chubb.
Reasons to Get Excited
Talent
There are those who argued that Chubb as a freshman was better than Gurley as a freshman. The numbers back that up. Chubb was just 69 yards away from breaking the SEC freshman rushing yards record set by Herschel Walker in 1980. In Georgia’s bowl game, he ran for a freshman record 266 yards.
Obviously, it’s worth noting when an 18-year-old torches SEC defenses like that. Should Chubb return to that level of domination, he’ll have a starter’s workload in Cleveland in no time.
And though he didn’t return to his freshman form, he still had two more 1,000-yard seasons with the Bulldogs and looked good doing it.
https://twitter.com/BrownsScout/status/991795161209430019
Improved Cleveland Offense
It would be difficult for Cleveland not to improve after their horrendous 2017, but they may be objectively decent after adding some talent in the offseason. Jarvis Landry and Tyrod Taylor are huge upgrades and Baker Mayfield could be a star. Additions on defense could also lead to more close games. Perhaps Cleveland’s offense won’t be a fantasy black hole again.
Unaccounted-For Carries
After the departures of Isaiah Crowell and DeShone Kizer, the Browns are one of the league’s leaders in unaccounted-for carries.
Top 5 Most Unaccounted-For Carries from '17 rosters:#Broncos 359: Royce Freeman > Dev. Booker > DeA. Henderson#Cardinals 356: David Johnson#Browns 295: Carlos Hyde > Nick Chubb > Duke Johnson#Colts 268: Marlon Mack > Jordan Wilkins > Bob Turbin#Giants 264: Saquon Barkley
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) May 9, 2018
In other words, the 2017 Browns had 295 carries by players who are no longer on the roster. That’s a significant number of touches up for grabs. Chubb ought to get his fair share, especially if Carlos Hyde‘s injury issues return.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Depth Chart
Speaking of Hyde, he’s the biggest obstacle in Chubb’s way. Not the only obstacle, but the biggest. Hyde had some success with the 49ers and is the favorite for early-down work. There will no doubt be a training camp battle and Chubb could take over by September, but right now all signs point to Hyde.
Furthermore, both Hyde and Chubb will lose third down work to Duke Johnson. Also, a significant chunk of those unaccounted-for carries should go to Cleveland’s quarterback. Both Taylor and Mayfield could exceed the 77 carries Kizer had last year. Mayfield averaged 101.3 carries per year at Oklahoma while Taylor averaged 94.3 in three years as Buffalo’s starter.
Game Flow
The Browns could be terrible and playing from behind constantly. While it’s true that they ought to be better, they were 0-16 last year. “Better” could still be awful in this case. That would be bad for any running back, but it would be especially bad for Chubb.
Receptions
In his final three years at Georgia, Chubb caught a combined 12 passes. He’d be a non-factor in the passing game even without an established receiving back like Duke Johnson. Johnson’s presence makes trusting Chubb even more difficult, especially in PPR leagues.
Conclusion
This is looking like a stay-away. Based on informal fantasy football Twitter observations, there’s probably going to be someone in your league who views Chubb as the second or third best rookie running back available. That’s a somewhat defensible position in dynasty leagues, but not redraft.
For Chubb to be worth using, the Browns will have to be much better and something will have to happen to Hyde. Hyde’s downfall is a realistic possibility, but few people who have relied on the Browns to succeed have fond memories of the experience. After all, Isaiah Crowell finished 15th among running backs in touches last year and 30th in PPR scoring. Split Crowell’s unaccounted-for touches among the two newcomers and you have two running backs that are rarely more than a matchup play.
