So, let’s have a look at the Most Valuable Player race:
The Greek Freak had his lowest scoring game of the season Saturday night in a loss to the Miami Heat, Kawhi Leonard sat out the second half of a back-to-back (again), and Anthony Davis had the night off after telling Yahoo Sports that “legacy, not money” will impact his future.
Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, Nikola Jokic got ejected for jawing at the referees.
No, not the best Saturday for any of the top MVP candidates. But there is one thing to take a hard look at on this particular Sunday morning: The futures odds on who will win the NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award.
Giannis Antetopounmpo is the favorite at +175, followed by Davis (9-2), LeBron James (11-2), Leonard and Stephen Curry (13-2), James Harden and Joel Embiid (9-1), Kevin Durant (13-1) and Russell Westbrook (14-1). Paul George of the Oklahoma City Thunder is part of the “Field” at +450.
So where is the value bet?
That would be with “The Joker.”
Jokic, the Serbian freak who is the NBA’s only point center and plays for the Western Conference’s most overachieving team, is on the board today at 60-1.
Merry Christmas, eh?
Channel your inner Charles Barkley.
“I told you, I’m all in on the Denver Nuggets, I told you that a month ago,” Barkley said.
“Not only that but the Joker (Nikola Jokic) should be the frontrunner for MVP.”
Reggie Miller, another analyst on the TNT show, disagreed with Barkley and said that Jokic can’t be a front runner, but could be in the discussion.
Barkley laid out his case.
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Jokic has two triple-doubles (one fewer than both LeBron James and James Harden), but that is not the statistic on which MVP votes are decided (OK, it counted for Russell Westbrook in 2017.)
What mattered most to this writer when he voted annually was this: Who was the best player on the best team, Or, who was the player on the team that most exceeded expectations.
This dynamic is the reason why Antetokounmpo is the front-runner, as Milwaukee (despite the lethargic loss at Miami last night — a testament to the dangers of arriving in Miami at 4 a.m. on the second night of a back-to-back) — is currently second in the Eastern Conference with the largest point differential of any team.
Let’s take a look at the rest of the favorites:
Anthony Davis (+450): His “legacy, not money” quote to Chris B. Haynes of Yahoo Sports was oh so telling, and the question now becomes “Will the Pelicans move him, and if so, will it be the Lakers or the Celtics?” And although New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry said the team will not trade Davis, the fact of the matter is that Gentry, general manager Dell Demps and Pelicans ownership will have to work for the next several years with Klutch Sports, which represents Davis, LeBron James and Ben Simmons. The Pelicans are 15-18 and have lost three in a row, and all of us are now waiting for the Feb. 7 trade deadline. Quite frankly, these MVP odds don’t make much sense two days before Christmas.
LeBron James (+550): You never want to bet against the King, but the Lakers remain a work in progress, and James’ comments in Brooklyn last week (regarding Davis and Carmelo Anthony, and the subsequent hullabaloo over whether it constituted tampering) were clearly designed to push ownership and management. One question hangs over the team internally: Does James believe Luke Walton is the correct coach for this team? Kick that around at the dinner table as you get ready for Warriors-Lakers on Christmas Night.
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Kawhi Leonard (+650): Nobody knows what he and Uncle Dennis will tell the Raptors in early February, and we will have to wait until January until we see him play a back-to-back. I don’t know how most voters feel about guys taking multiple days off to either “rest” or rehab a questionable quad injury, but I am not all that enamored of the enabling that is happening in Toronto. To me, these odds are a reflection of the Raptors record rather than Leonard’s contributions. He has missed nine games. MVPs don’t take days off.
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Stephen Curry (+650) and Kevin Durant (13-1): On a certain level, these guys cancel each other out. So there is that, plus there’s the fact that the single most dynamic performance by a Warrior this season was Klay Thompson knocking down an NBA-record 14 3-pointers against Chicago. Durant is second in the NBA in scoring, and the Warriors are in a virtual three-way tie for first place in the Western Conference. But are they doing better than expected? That answer would be “No.”
James Harden (9-1): With Chris Paul sidelined for at least two weeks with a hamstring injury, The Beard is going to be asked to do more and more and more. Last night, he went for 39 and 10 vs. the Spurs, knocking down seven 3-pointers. The Rockets are in seventh in the West and have the fourth-lowest scoring output, but a Harden-led charge to the top of the standings could earn him this award for the second straight season.
Joel Embiid (9-1): Sadly, he won’t be playing against Andre Drummond anymore this season. He was a beast against the Raptors on Saturday night as Toronto played without Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka, and he has stopped taking 3s. The Sixers are now 3rd in the Eastern Conference and could very well finish first, and if they gave this award out with personality as the determining factor, 9-1 would be too long.
Russell Westbrook (14-1): As noted above, Paul George is not on the board. And make no mistake, George has been the MVP of the Thunder thus far. They are tied for first place in the West entering tonight’s games.
I like the Joker at 60-1.
Heck, I liked him in the summer at 100-1, and I put $10 on it. So no, I will not be voting in the MVP race in April. I am DQ’d.
