This season’s National League Wild Card game between the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks feature fresh playoff teams, with this year being the Rockies’ first postseason appearance since 2009 and the Diamondbacks’ first since 2011. The Diamondbacks and Rockies were the second- and third-place teams respectively in the stacked NL West, with the top team in the league – the Los Angeles Dodgers – leading the conference. The Diamondbacks ended the season with a 6.0 lead over the Rockies in the Wild Card standings while also posting the second-best run differential in the NL (+153), trailing only the Dodgers (+190) and more than doubling up on the Rockies (+67). Let’s take a look at the Wild Card game preview for these two teams.
Details
Date – Wednesday October 4th, 2017
Time – 8:00 PM EST
Line – ARI -168
Why The Rockies Might Win The Wild Card Game
During the regular season, the Rockies have been slightly worse on the road compared to playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field (41-40 vs. 46-35). However, the splits are not eye-popping, which is a good sign for a Rockies team playing on the road. On the mound for the Rockies is 25-year-old Jon Gray, who has compiled a 10-4 record with a 3.67 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9 while allowing opponents to slash .266/.316/.400. Gray has also been able to maintain respectable BB:K numbers of 0.27:1 and a home-run rate of 0.82 HR/9. Over the last month to end the season, Gray has been untouchable, posting a perfect 4-0 record to go along with a 2.10 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 while only allowing 2 HR in 30.0 IP and a stellar 4 BB to 33 K. Additionally, Gray has also been decent against the Diamondbacks this year, posting a 2-1 record with a 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 13.0 K/9, while allowing 19 H, 7 ER, 3 HR, 4 BB, and 26 K in 18.0 IP. However, if the Rockies need to win, their offense must provide in a big way and Gray will have to pitch similar to how he did during the final stretch of the regular season.
Why The Diamondbacks Might Win The Wild Card Game
The Diamondbacks have posted a significantly discrepant home-away record this year (52-29 at home vs. 41-40 on the road), which will definitely serve as an advantage playing at home. The Diamondbacks will be rolling with one of the best pitchers of his generation in Zack Greinke. On the year, Greinke has compiled a 17-7 record with a 3.20 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 while allowing opponents to slash .230/.272/.387. However, these statistics aren’t prime-Greinke – even his BB:K ratio (0.21:1) and home run rate (1.11 HR/9). Additionally, Greinke hasn’t posted significantly strong numbers during the final month of the season, going 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9 while allowing 26 H, 13 ER, 5 HR, 6 BB, and 27 K in 30.0 IP – not exactly the numbers you’d expect from two-time MLB ERA leader and Cy Young Winner. Greinke has also been somewhat average during his five starts against the Rockies this year – 2-1 record with a 3.41 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 while allowing 30 H, 13 ER, 6 HR, 2 BB, and 37 K in 34.1 IP. Greinke will need to pitch somewhat better against the Rockies if he wants to stamp the team’s ticket to the NLDS against his former Dodgers. However, with Greinke’s pedigree, he’ll show up to this big Wild Card game.
Outlook
The Diamondbacks have been the better team throughout the regular season and Greinke is no-doubt the better starting pitcher in this matchup. However, Gray is an up-and-coming ace while Greinke is slipping into the hands of Father Time. Let’s take a look at both pitchers’ head-to-head statistics against the opposing team’s batters.
Gray vs. Diamondbacks
- Jake Lamb .308/.333/.462 with 0 HR, 1 BB, and 3 K in 13 AB
- David Peralta .462/.462/.615 with 0 HR, 0 BB, and 3 K in 13 AB
- Paul Goldschmidt 0 H, 0 BB, and 5 K in 11 AB
- Brandon Drury .375/.444/.500 with 0 HR, 1 BB, and 3 K in 8 AB
- A.J. Pollock .429/.375/.857 with 0 HR, 3 2B, 0 BB, and 2 K in 7 AB
- J.D. Martinez 2 HR and 2 K in 6 AB
Greinke vs. Rockies
- Charlie Blackmon .265/.302/.367 with 0 HR, 2 BB, and 11 K in 49 AB
- Nolan Arenado .277/.306/.447 with 0 HR, 2 BB, and 6 K in 47 AB
- DJ LeMahieu .311/.311/.444 with 1 HR, 0 BB, and 11 K in 45 AB
- Carlos Gonzalez .333/.378/.762 with 5 HR, 3 BB, and 11 K in 42 AB
- Gerrado Parra .279/.295/.302 with 0 HR, 1 BB, and 7 K in 43 AB
- Mark Reynolds .194/.237/.556 with 4 HR, 2 BB, and 14 K in 36 AB
- Trevor Story .333/.360/.875 with 4 HR, 1 BB, and 6 K in 24 AB
- Ian Desmond .136/.136/.136 with 0 HR, 0 BB, and 7 K in 22 AB
- Jonathan Lucroy .636/.667/.818 with 0 HR, 1 BB, and 1 K in 11 AB
I just can’t see myself betting against Greinke, even though he’s underperformed relatively in the past playoffs. With the current lines pretty accurate in terms of the likelihood of winning for each team, I wouldn’t say there’s much value in betting. However, the Diamondbacks have dominated at home all season and with their ace on the mound, they should be heading to the NLDS matchup against the Dodgers, with Greinke having the opportunity to exact revenge.
Pick: Diamondbacks -168
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