The Arizona Diamondbacks advanced to the National League Division Series after beating the Colorado Rockies 11-8 in a slugfest. They’ll have to contend with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who finished the regular season with a 104-58 (.642) record. With Zack Greinke having already pitched in the Wild Card game, he’ll have to wait for the opportunity to pitch against his former team. The Dodgers are clearly favorites in this matchup but let’s take a more in-depth look at how this series will likely pan out.
Why The Diamondbacks Might Win The Series
The Diamondbacks actually finished with a better record than the defending World Series champions Chicago Cubs. While the Diamondbacks will certainly need a bit of luck on their side when facing Clayton Kershaw, they have a decent rotation as well. Here are the statistics of their starters.
Zack Greinke: 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 0.21:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.11 HR/9 rate
Taijuan Walker: 9-9 with a 3.49 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 0.42:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.97 HR/9 rate
Robbie Ray: 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 0.33:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.28 HR/9 rate
Zack Godley: 8-9 with a 3.37 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 0.32:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.87 HR/9 rate
Patrick Corbin: 14-13 with a 4.03 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 0.34:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.24 HR/9 rate
While Greinke and Ray will certainly strike fear into the Dodgers’ hitters, the other three starters aren’t nearly as imposing. Paul Goldschmidt has been the Diamondbacks’ best hitter this year, although J.D. Martinez might make a close case for his second-half performance. Goldschmidt led all Diamondback players with a .297 AVG, .404 OBP, .563 SLG, 36 HR, and 120 RBI. He’ll definitely have his moments but other hitters such as Martinez, Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock, and David Peralta must also step up. The Diamondbacks believe they’re the better team, having taken 11 of 19 against the Dodgers during the regular season. If Kershaw is the same playoff Kershaw that we’ve seen in the past, the Dodgers could be in trouble.
Why The Dodgers Might Win The Series
The Dodgers have had a regular season for the ages. While they were close to breaking the MLB regular season wins record at one point, they’ve struggled quite a bit during the second half. However, this team is clearly built to win now, and simply put, they’re stacked. Here’s a look at their starting rotation.
Clayton Kershaw: 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 0.15:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.18 HR/9 rate
Rich Hill: 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 0.30:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.20 HR/9 rate
Yu Darvish: 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 0.28:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.31 HR/9 rate
Alex Wood: 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 0.25:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.89 HR/9 rate
The Dodgers’ pitchers have been great all season along with their formidable bullpen. Additionally, their hitters haven’t been shabby either, with Justin Turner leading the team with a .322 AVG and .415 OBP and rookie sensation Cody Bellinger leading the team with a .581 SLG, 39 HR, and 97 RBI. This seems like the year the Dodgers will finally make it to the World Series, and with good reason too.
Outlook
The Dodgers have been the better team throughout the regular season in comparison to the Diamondbacks. With the exception of the offense for both teams, which seems more on par, the Dodgers clearly have the superior pitching staff – both starting pitching and bullpen. On top of that, the Dodgers have more experience. They have had their eye on the prize all season long while the Diamondbacks, who have been a surprise team this year, are mostly happy to be here. While that doesn’t meant that Arizona won’t try as hard or isn’t capable of winning, it’s a notable difference between the two teams. The Dodgers should be a little more crisp in a few areas and along with home-field advantage, that should be the difference.
The Dodgers real test will be against either the Cubs or the Washington Nationals. They’ll should be able to advance against the Diamondbacks, made much easier by the fact that the Diamondbacks’ two best pitchers in Greinke and Ray were forced to pitch in the Wild Card game.
Pick: Dodgers -260
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